Russia gears up for NATO clash with surge in arms production – ISW

Russia is significantly increasing its output of drones, armoured vehicles, aircraft, and ships — key weapon systems the Kremlin would rely on in the event of a future war with NATO, according to a new report by the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Drawing on data from Russia’s Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defence, ISW reports that industrial production in Russia rose by 2.6% between April and May 2025. The primary driver of this growth was a surge in defence manufacturing.

The statistics reveal a notable rise in aviation production: output in May 2025 jumped by 16.9% compared to April and was 1.6 times higher than in the same period of 2024. Over the three months from February to May, Russia also expanded its production capacities in both the aviation and shipbuilding sectors by 16%.

“These data from the centre indicate the Russian Federation's desire to expand its strategic industrial infrastructure in the medium and long term,” ISW analysts stated. “These measures may be part of the process of reorganising and restoring the combat capabilities of the Russian armed forces, given the possibility of a protracted conflict with NATO countries.”

Satellite imagery of Russian armoured vehicle repair plants shows an uptick in the production and refurbishment of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), according to an independent analytical source that monitors Russian military enterprises. The evidence suggests that Russia is now producing and repairing more IFVs than before the war in Ukraine.

Further analysis reveals that Russia is also making measurable progress in boosting production of its T-90M main battle tanks, a clear signal that Moscow continues to invest in the long-term development of its heavy armour forces.

ISW concludes that it remains uncertain whether these steps are intended to prepare for a renewed large-scale offensive against Ukraine in the near term or if they reflect broader strategic planning for a potential confrontation with NATO.

By Tamilla Hasanova