Reuters: Internal revolt and Israeli strikes leave Hamas on the brink

Hamas is fighting to maintain its presence in Gaza as it faces dwindling leadership, severe losses to its tunnel infrastructure, internal dissent from local clans, and uncertainty over continued backing from Iran. While fighters are still active, they now operate in fragmented units, acting autonomously under broad orders to resist as long as possible, Reuters reported, citing 16 sources including Hamas insiders, Israeli officials, and regional diplomats.

The group’s ability to maintain control is further challenged by growing Israeli support for rebellious clans. In southern Gaza, Israel has openly armed local tribal factions, including forces led by Yasser Abu Shabab, a Bedouin figure in Rafah accused by Hamas of collaborating with Israeli forces and seeking to undermine the group’s rule. Hamas has reportedly dispatched elite fighters to eliminate him, but he remains elusive in territory under Israeli control.

Abu Shabab’s forces control eastern Rafah and are reportedly escorting aid convoys from the Kerem Shalom crossing, pledging security and aid to displaced Gazans. Though his group denies seeking to govern, it has issued public calls for displaced Rafah residents to return. The group also denies receiving Israeli support or engaging with the IDF, claiming its only goal is to protect humanitarian aid and fill the security vacuum left by Hamas.

Despite the internal strife, Hamas continues to carry out attacks, including one that killed seven Israeli soldiers earlier this week. Still, its operational capacity has diminished sharply. Israeli officials estimate over 20,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, and hundreds of miles of tunnels destroyed. Intelligence suggests the group has lost centralised command capabilities and is now limited to sporadic, localised strikes.

The war, now in its 20th month, has devastated Gaza, with local support for Hamas declining amid worsening humanitarian conditions. Many residents blame Hamas for the conflict’s toll. One resident in Gaza City described fighters as less visible, occasionally appearing to oversee bread lines or aid convoys, but largely in hiding due to relentless Israeli airstrikes.

Hamas has indicated interest in a ceasefire, seeing it as a chance to regroup and reassert control over internal dissent, including looters and rival factions. However, the terms proposed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — which reportedly include removing Hamas leaders from Gaza — are seen by the group as a call for total surrender.

The group’s political leadership, meanwhile, remains engaged in indirect talks and has offered to release all Israeli hostages if the war ends. Senior Hamas figure Sami Abu Zuhri emphasised that while the group is open to negotiation, surrender is not an option.

The shift in Hamas’s fortunes has been compounded by uncertainty over Iranian support. Since the US-led strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities earlier this month — which followed Israeli attacks — Hamas’s longtime benefactor has been more cautious.

The killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard officer Saeed Izadi, reportedly responsible for Hamas coordination, is seen as a blow. Iranian-aligned sources confirmed that Izadi had been instrumental in developing Hamas’s military capabilities, including drone operations and tunnel warfare.

While Tehran remains publicly supportive, Hamas fears reductions in funding and military assistance. Israeli officials believe their recent campaign against Iran has not only weakened Hamas’s strategic depth but also bolstered Israel’s position in Gaza.

As diplomatic attention turns back to Gaza following a US-brokered truce between Iran and Israel, the stakes for Hamas are rising. Analysts warn that the group’s survival now hinges not just on military endurance, but on navigating a complex political and internal landscape where local rivals are gaining ground and external support is no longer guaranteed.

By Tamilla Hasanova