Why Russians haven’t risen against the Ukraine war A Responsible Statecraft insight

A recent article from Responsible Statecraft sheds light on one of the West’s enduring puzzles: why ordinary Russians have largely not rebelled against the war in Ukraine, despite heavy casualties and economic sanctions. The piece argues that this reluctance is rooted not simply in fear or repression, but in a profound transformation of Russian national identity over the past two decades—a transformation accelerated and solidified by the ongoing conflict.

The article begins by framing the post-Soviet identity crisis that Russia faced after the collapse of the USSR. Boris Yeltsin’s era, defined by a radical break from communism, left the country with a negative sense of self, while early Vladimir Putin years sought a positive vision centred on Western-style integration—but one constrained by Russian independence. Yet, repeated clashes with the West and unbridgeable cultural differences undermined that approach, leaving Russia without a coherent narrative of its uniqueness. In this vacuum, World War II—or the “Great Patriotic War”—emerged as a near-sacred unifying story, providing Russians a source of pride and resilience.

When the war in Ukraine began, Russians initially reacted with shock, disbelief, and confusion. Most were focused on survival rather than patriotic fervour. Over nearly four years, however, this has changed dramatically. The article highlights how state propaganda, combined with Western hostility and sanctions, fostered a collective sense of pride in Russia’s survival and strength. Many Russians now see the war as defensive and inevitable, with anti-Western sentiment pervasive. Public mobilisation has followed suit: recruitment continues, high wages incentivise military service, and grassroots support movements—especially among women and pensioners—remain active. Speaking against the war is socially risky, further reinforcing conformity.

Economic and cultural factors have also reinforced this cohesion. Despite sanctions, the Russian economy experienced several years of growth, boosting optimism and stimulating domestic innovation. This mirrors the WWII-era push for technological advancement under duress, reinforcing national pride. Large state obligations, public investment, and relatively low taxes constitute a social contract that many Russians view as superior to Western systems, strengthening loyalty to the state. Culturally, the exodus of some prominent anti-war figures has been offset by a domestic renaissance: new theatres, music, and art venues flourish, cultivating pride in homegrown talent and reinforcing a sense of self-reliance. Even liberal Russians see value in rejecting Western “woke” ideology and embracing what they perceive as authentic, traditional European culture.

In essence, the article argues that Russia’s public has been transformed by war into a more cohesive, confident society. External threats, state narratives, and economic and cultural developments have coalesced into a resilient national identity. Far from fracturing under pressure, the Russian population has largely internalised the idea that survival and independence require continued engagement in the war. In the short term, this explains why opposition remains muted, while in the long term, it signals a potentially enduring reshaping of Russian identity itself.

By Vugar Khalilov