Europe backs Trump's plan for peaceful resolution of conflict in Ukraine

US President-elect Donald Trump's push for peace in Ukraine is gaining increasing support across Europe.

Amid growing doubts about US support for Kyiv, many European officials view diplomacy as the best path forward for Ukraine, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

The increasing alignment between Europe and the Trump administration on negotiations marks a sharp shift from just six months ago. At that time, European officials were deeply concerned by Trump's promise to quickly end the conflict through negotiations, fearing that the former president might strike a deal with the Kremlin at Ukraine's expense.

However, deep concerns remain in Europe about the extent to which the Trump administration might limit Ukraine's ability to independently shape the terms of a diplomatic resolution. European leaders are also worried about what Russian demands Trump might be willing to accept as part of a ceasefire or peace agreement.

After German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Russian leader Volodymyr Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that the conversation risks opening a "Pandora's box," as it could lead to further discussions that are nothing more than "an abundance of words." 

Nevertheless, Trump's transition team is increasingly convinced that Ukraine is more inclined to negotiate peace with Russia than is publicly acknowledged. Trump and his senior advisers believe that, given the setbacks on the battlefield, Ukraine will soon have no choice but to come to the negotiating table. But a big question remains: how will Trump act — and will Putin negotiate in good faith? His advisers have proposed various plans, each significantly different from the Biden administration’s "as long as it takes" approach. 

If these proposals are accepted as a final agreement between Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine may refrain from joining NATO for 20 years, while continuing to receive more weapons to deter the resumption of Russian aggression. In most capitals, the official message still remains that Europe will continue supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary. 

However, at the summit in Budapest, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni cautiously questioned whether Europe would be able to provide Ukraine with the necessary military, financial, and humanitarian aid if Trump were to cut American funding.  

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been urging Europe for a long time to adopt Trump's strategy aimed at quickly ending the conflict. His argument that Europe lacks a realistic strategy to achieve what it claims to want — a Ukrainian victory and the return of its territory — is resonating even in countries that have been much stronger supporters of Kyiv. 

However, there is uncertainty in Europe about whether Trump will agree to negotiations if Putin does not engage in serious talks and instead seeks to tighten Moscow's control over Ukraine — a scenario that, according to senior US and European officials, is highly likely.   If Ukraine is not allowed to join NATO, European officials say that Ukraine must receive sufficient military support to defend against future Russian attacks, and they want the US to continue backing these efforts.

They also stress the importance of both Ukraine and Europe having a seat at the negotiating table when it comes to determining the outcome of the conflict and the future security of Europe. 

Some high-ranking European diplomats have stated that they must be prepared for the possibility that Trump may demand European troops to provide security guarantees for Ukraine and monitor a ceasefire along the Ukrainian front line, which could stretch for hundreds of kilometres. 

Any such decision could prove politically challenging for European governments, including the nuclear powers of Europe — the UK and France. If the US does not participate and fails to offer support, and if Russia resumes hostilities in the future, this move would become even more risky.

By Naila Huseynova