Europe’s defence dilemma: Can it go solo without US support?

Europe faces a daunting challenge in achieving military self-sufficiency without the support of the US, new research warns.

According to a study by Guntram Wolff, senior fellow at Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Europe would need to recruit 300,000 new soldiers, acquire 1,400 new tanks, and double its defence spending over the next five years to be able to defend itself independently, Caliber.Az reports citing foreign media.

Wolff’s findings come in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s vocal threats to withdraw US military support for Europe, combined with his push to negotiate a peace deal with Russia. These shifts have heightened discussions within European capitals about their future security.

“The US’s abrupt change of direction had come as a ‘shock’ to Europe,” Wolff said, emphasizing the difficulty in adapting to this new reality. “Europe’s political system and...military-security bubble...have been living in a, let’s say, 50-year period of always thinking NATO and the US are there and basically covering their backs.”

To achieve self-sufficiency in defence, Europe would need to increase spending by an additional €250bn annually—equivalent to doubling current defence spending to around 3.5 to 4 per cent of GDP. The funds would be used to create 50 new brigades, providing approximately 300,000 new troops to replace US forces stationed in Europe.

Moreover, Wolff’s analysis calls for the acquisition of military equipment, including 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces. These numbers represent “more combat power than currently exists in the French, German, Italian, and British land forces combined.”

While the current NATO benchmark is 2 per cent of GDP, with 16 out of 23 EU members meeting this goal, Wolff believes that 3.5 per cent is necessary if the US were to retreat from the region. “The money gaps are very big right now...But [the US retreat from Europe] is actually quite widely discussed in society,” he said.

However, there is a potential silver lining. Wolff notes that if European nations begin making large military purchases collaboratively, it could help reduce costs and provide a boost to the EU economy.

Meanwhile, trade relations between the EU and US are also under strain. The EU is considering lowering car tariffs in response to US President Trump’s threats to impose additional tariffs. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said, “We could discuss changes to tariffs on cars,” adding that the EU could also consider increasing its purchases of US liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The EU faces significant challenges in both defense and trade, but how it navigates these issues will shape its future economic and security landscape.

By Vafa Guliyeva