"Europeans will continue to spy on Azerbaijan from Armenian territory" Expert insights

One of the main conditions for a peace agreement proposed by Baku is the inadmissibility of third-country representatives on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. This clear and straightforward demand was articulated by the President of Azerbaijan in a recent interview with Russian television. "Why is this important for us? Because, under the guise of so-called European observers, NATO infrastructure has been created on the Armenian side of the border with us," Ilham Aliyev explained. It is also quite evident that Armenia is intent on extending the mandate for the EU's spy mission on its territory.

Can Azerbaijan and Armenia find common ground on this contentious issue? Caliber.Az sought insights from leading experts on the matter.

According to Rasim Musabayov, a member of Azerbaijan's Milli Majlis (parliament) and a political analyst, Azerbaijan's proposal in the draft peace agreement is unlikely to obstruct the work of the joint commission on border delimitation and demarcation.

“We have already delimited and even demarcated 12 kilometres of the border, covering areas where our border villages were once occupied by Armenians and later returned to Azerbaijan. I believe this process will continue. The only difference is that while the joint regulations have been approved, the specific procedures—such as which sections will be addressed and in what order—will likely be finalized early next year,” the political analyst noted.

Musabayov further explained the typical process: the border is divided into segments, with both sides first reaching consensus on maps and then confirming these agreements on the ground. These agreements are documented in protocols before the parties move on to the next segment.

“Well, disagreements between the parties are inevitable, so the process typically starts with sections of the border where there are no significant disputes. These areas are easier to address, finalize, and document,” Musabayov explained. “As for contentious sections, various solutions are possible—such as land swaps or other approaches. If no consensus can be reached, additional maps and documents may be brought in, and specialized discussions held on these issues.”

He highlighted that this process can take considerable time: “For instance, it took us 10 years to finalize the border with Russia, and we still haven’t fully completed the work with Georgia. As of now, about 22–23% of the border with Georgia remains unresolved. Ultimately, the order of work will likely be decided by the deputy prime ministers responsible for these matters. I believe an agreement, in one form or another, will eventually be reached.”

Musabayov also emphasized that foreign personnel, such as former police officers from Germany or France or ex-intelligence agents, have no business patrolling Azerbaijan’s borders.

“I believe Armenia understands this as well, with the only difference being that they are not yet capable of taking full responsibility for border security. Armenia does not have border forces. They still rely on Russian border guards for this issue. Along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the control is attempted by members of 'Yerkrapa,' as well as local groups of varying ages who have not taken an oath or undergone proper training. It’s clear that with such border security, Armenia needs to be backed by foreign representatives from the European Union or Russian border guards stationed along the Armenian-Iranian and Armenian-Turkish borders. In any case, the problem exists, it has been voiced, and it has been defined. I believe Armenia will have to take into account the position outlined by the President of Azerbaijan,” Musabayov noted.

He also highlighted issues surrounding the financing of the EU mission, which has considerable costs: “For example, as far as I know, the entire staff receives double salaries, plus insurance and additional allowances. But EU mission funding ends in February. What happens next remains to be seen,” the MP noted.

He also believes that within the European Union and other European institutions, there are individuals who recognize the redundancy of the mission’s presence along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, where there is complete peace, no gunfire, and no significant violations.

“Well, at most, if someone’s livestock wandered to the other side, we simply returned it. So there is no reason for former police officers or intelligence agents from France to be walking around, using binoculars to examine Azerbaijan’s border, or for MPs and presidents from various countries to visit from time to time just to show their solidarity with Armenia. These actions don’t help Armenia in any way, but they certainly contribute to the tension in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and are unlikely to promote peace,” emphasized Musabayov.

According to Andrei Petrov, the deputy director-general of the news agency Vestnik Kavkaza and a Russian political analyst, Armenia may well agree to this clause in the peace agreement and withdraw European forces from the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. This is because neither the Europeans present in Armenia nor Armenia itself currently have any real need for the mission to remain on the border with Azerbaijan.

“There have long been no reasons or preconditions for large-scale clashes along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border that would even theoretically require observation by anyone from the outside. The paradox is that, during their time at the border, the Europeans have not recorded a single skirmish that actually occurred there. It’s clear that European observers are in Armenia for their own purposes, which are unrelated to monitoring the border. They only show up to give the appearance that they’re fulfilling the mission’s mandate. It’s quite obvious that Armenia is hosting these European forces on its territory as part of some deals it has made with the European Union, though we don’t know the exact terms yet. Therefore, both Armenia and Brussels could easily stop sending foreign observers to the border with Azerbaijan and simply return to their usual activities—spying on Iran, monitoring the Russian base in Gyumri, perhaps keeping an eye on Türkiye. Now, they just need to come up with a new explanation—what exactly are European security forces doing in Armenia under the guise of observers? This would allow Armenia to explain it to Russia and its neighbours, while also giving the EU a way to wriggle out of the situation and continue its role as a self-proclaimed peacekeeper, as it likes to do,” the political analyst noted.

According to Petrov, the delay on this point of the peace agreement is currently due to the fact that Yerevan and Brussels have not yet developed a new concept for the presence of European forces in Armenia. For now, the idea that they are supposedly monitoring Azerbaijan is still maintained.

“There is no doubt that, in the foreseeable future, at least as long as Nikol Pashinyan and his team remain in power, Yerevan will continue its efforts to expand West's presence in Armenia. Yerevan has no reason to scale back its cooperation with the European Union, and I believe it will continue to grow. The only question is under what guise it will take place,” the political analyst emphasized.

In his view, Armenia seems unconcerned by the fact that the European mission is essentially staffed by spies from Western countries, working against Armenia’s neighbouring states.

“It’s clear that this doesn’t sit well with regional countries and irritates them. Of course, no one will give up on espionage against Azerbaijan. Even if Armenia and Azerbaijan come to some agreement on this matter, it is obvious that espionage will continue, but no longer officially—rather, it will be done covertly. In other words, Azerbaijan will still have to monitor what is happening on the other side of the border in Armenia, who is standing there with binoculars, or which foreign guests or politicians are visiting the border. Nonetheless, I believe that the clause about the non-deployment of third-party forces on the border between Baku and Yerevan will eventually be agreed upon,” concluded Petrov.