"Eventually, Pashinyan will have to make constitutional changes over Karabakh" Russian, Ukrainian experts talk to Caliber.Az

On several occasions, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has made public declarations recognising the full territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Simultaneously, he does nothing to remove the Karabakh clause from the Armenian constitution.

The fact is that the preamble of the current Armenian Constitution states that the Basic Law is derived from the principles and goals enshrined in the Declaration of Independence of Armenia. The preamble of the Declaration of Independence says about the Declaration of Independence "based on the joint resolution of the Supreme Council of the Armenian SSR and the National Council of Nagorno-Karabakh of December 1, 1989 'On the reunification of the Armenian SSR and Nagorno-Karabakh'". This means that officially, at the constitutional level, Armenia still considers Karabakh to be part of it. Therefore, as long as the Constitution of Armenia is not amended and the reference to the Declaration of Independence is not removed from it, the talk about the absence of territorial claims of this state against Azerbaijan is not quite true.

It is obvious that to make the necessary changes in the Constitution in this regard, the Prime Minister would have to initiate a referendum. But for some reason, Pashinyan is not taking this step. Why? Won't it turn out that the next leader of Armenia will refuse to recognise Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan?

Foreign experts shared their thoughts on the matter with Caliber.Az.

First of all, says Sergei Zhavoronkov, co-chairman of the Russian political party Democratic Choice and member of the board of the Liberal Mission Foundation (Moscow), it is worth considering that this is not 2018 when Pashinyan at the height of his hype could push any issue.

"If a referendum is held, there will be quite a game, unpredictable situation. Which is not favourable not only to Pashinyan but also to Azerbaijan, by the way.

As for the fear that the future Armenian authorities will make some new claims, the main thing is the physical readiness to back up these claims. If there is no such readiness, then all claims are nothing. Taiwan, for example, officially considers itself the government of the whole of China and even appoints nominal governors in all provinces. Who cares about this except political scientists specialising in this region?" Zhavoronkov says.

Candidate of Historical Sciences, Ukrainian analyst Oleg Kupchik understands Azerbaijan's concern about this problem.

"This concern is understandable for everyone. It lies in the political-legal plane. Its solution is also political-legal. Armenian constitutionalist lawyers should first of all work on the solution of the problem. It is impossible to amend the 'Declaration of Independence of Armenia' (August 23, 1990) adopted by the Supreme Soviet of the Armenian SSR back in the Soviet times. At the same time, the authors of the declaration, obviously outlining the borders of the Armenian state, were based on the worthless resolution of the Supreme Soviet of the Armenian SSR of December 1, 1989 'On the Reunification of the Armenian SSR and Nagorno-Karabakh'. Further, as we know, the principles and goals of the 'Declaration of Independence of Armenia' were specified as fundamental for the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia. This is stated in its preamble.

The solution to this legal problem, in my opinion, can (and should) be to amend the preamble of the Armenian Constitution to indicate the absence of territorial claims to the Karabakh region, which rightfully belongs to Azerbaijan. For this purpose, the Armenian government will have to hold a referendum and edit the preamble of the Constitution. I do not think that the reference to the 'Declaration of Independence of Armenia' will be completely deleted, as it was this Declaration that guided the National Assembly in adopting the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia. The task will most likely be to make an addition, e.g. in the form of a reservation, etc., to the Constitution.

Why doesn't Pashinyan take such a step? I will say once again that his government will have to hold this referendum and amend the preamble of the Constitution to legally declare the absence of claims to the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. This is necessary for the establishment and further strengthening of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is crucial for the stability and development of the Armenian economy and trade. And the absence of territorial claims to its neighbours is necessary for Armenia itself, first of all in the context of its European aspirations. I think Armenia understands this very well. Moreover, the Armenian society itself is ready to declare at the referendum the renunciation of claims to the Karabakh region by amending the preamble of the Constitution and thus effectively support the efforts of the Pashinyan government aimed at integrating the country into European structures," the expert believes.

But the Russian side is trying to counter Armenia's European aspirations and keep it in Russia's military and political (CSTO, CIS) and economic (EAEU) alliances, he notes.

"And every time Moscow uses the 'Karabakh issue' to artificially engineer an 'intra-Armenian conflict.' By design, it should lead to a coup, namely the overthrow of Pashinyan and the seizure of power by 'friends of the Kremlin' Kocharyan and Sargsyan and, subsequently, to the rejection of the country's pro-European course.

The referendum on making the above-mentioned changes to the preamble of the Armenian Constitution, and in essence a legal declaration of Armenians' renunciation of claims to the Karabakh region, will undoubtedly be used by the Kremlin as a favourable condition for the organisation of new violent 'protests' of those dissatisfied with the loss of 'Artsakh', which is associated with Pashinyan's miscalculations in "Karabakh policy". With the relocation of Karabakh Armenians to Yerevan and its suburbs in 2023, the potential participants of these protests have become more numerous. But one must realise that the real aim of these 'protests' is to roll back the country's pro-Western course. Thus, should Pashinyan hurry up with the referendum now? I am not sure.

As for the possibility that the next leader of Armenia will refuse to recognise Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, I believe that Armenia's cooperation with such European and Euro-Atlantic structures as the EU and NATO will ensure the predictability of its foreign policy and protect Armenia itself from territorial claims on foreign territory. Therefore, the pro-Western course of the Armenian government is favourable to Azerbaijan. The emergence of pro-Russian figures in the Armenian leadership will inevitably lead Armenia to a policy of revanchism.

But regardless of who will lead Armenia, the main guarantee of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and sovereignty is its combat-ready armed forces. Azerbaijan realised this long ago. It learnt lessons and drew the right conclusions from the First Karabakh War. And then it persistently and purposefully engaged in military construction for 20 years. As a result, it achieved victory in the Second Karabakh War, liberating the occupied territories. And this victory was the result of joint efforts of the leadership and people of the country.

The main lesson from this story, as well as similar others, is that the 'decisions' of heads and parliaments of states on the annexation of foreign territories are legally worthless from the moment of their adoption. Moreover, such 'decisions' are criminal. Sooner or later they will have to be corrected and brought in line not only with international but also national legislation," the Ukrainian historian concluded.