Expert: Norway’s declining oil, gas output could revive Russia’s influence in European energy market

A potential drop in oil and gas production in Norway could allow Russia to regain its share of the European energy market, Andreas Schroeder, head of energy analytics at the Independent Commodity Intelligence Service (ICIS), has said.

“Dusk for Norway is dawn for Russia,” Schroeder stated, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

He continued, "Russia is unlikely to dominate Europe again as in the past when it had nearly 40% market share. But the call to open the pipes and gates for cheap Russian gas will get louder over time as gas prices increase with dwindling Norwegian output."

According to Schroeder it creates a case for more cooperation with Russia and will encourage Russia-friendly politicians in countries like Slovakia and Hungary.

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate has reported that the country’s oil and gas production peaked last year and is expected to decline going forward, with overall output anticipated to fall throughout the later stages of this decade.

Note that, Norway has been a crucial energy supplier to the UK for decades, providing half of its gas and a quarter of its oil. However, Norway's oil and gas production is in decline, as confirmed by a recent report from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD).

The country's output peaked in 2024 and is projected to halve by 2035 unless significant investment is made in exploration and infrastructure. This decline poses a potential energy crisis for the UK, already facing a reduction in North Sea production.

The situation also strengthens Russia’s influence over global gas markets, raising geopolitical concerns for Europe.

By Aghakazim Guliyev