Fearing submersion, half of Tuvalu’s citizens apply for Australia migration ballot

A growing number of citizens in the low-lying South Pacific island nation of Tuvalu are seeking a pathway to permanent relocation as fears mount that their country could become uninhabitable due to rising sea levels.

In a striking display of urgency, nearly half the population has applied for a visa to move to Australia under a special migration arrangement established between the two governments, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

The deadline for applications closed at midnight on July 18, and by Friday afternoon, 8,074 individuals from 2,278 family groups — out of Tuvalu’s total population of 10,643 — had submitted their names for a permanent residency visa. The program, launched under the terms of the 2023 Falepili Union Treaty between Tuvalu and Australia, allows for up to 280 Tuvaluans each year to be selected through a random ballot to resettle in Australia.

Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) called the participation “an incredibly positive uptake.” However, the competition is steep, with only 280 visa slots available in the first year. Those selected will gain the right to live, work, study, and access medical services in Australia. Final selections will be made through a lottery process scheduled to conclude by January 2026.

The new visa program is a targeted offshoot of the broader Pacific Engagement Visa, introduced by the Australian government in 2024. That wider initiative had already drawn over 56,000 applications from across the Pacific region last year, competing for just 3,000 available places. The next round is expected to open shortly.

Tuvalu, composed of nine coral atolls and reef islands, sits at an average elevation of less than two meters above sea level. According to United Nations projections, up to 95 per cent of Tuvalu's landmass — including its capital — could be submerged at high tide by the year 2100 if global sea levels continue to rise.

The Falepili Union Treaty is more than a migration accord. It includes a security component requiring Tuvalu to consult Australia before entering into any defence or security agreement with another country. 

The treaty also includes commitments to help Tuvaluans remain on their islands through climate adaptation and development aid. DFAT has allocated approximately $47 million for the 2025–26 fiscal year to support projects in climate resilience, infrastructure, education, health, and telecommunications.

While Australia and Tuvalu have formalised a bilateral agreement, other Pacific nations are exploring climate mobility through multilateral avenues like the Pacific Islands Forum. The long-term goal is not only to create migration pathways to countries like Australia and New Zealand but also to facilitate regional mobility among Pacific states themselves.

The Pacific Engagement Visa — of which the Tuvalu program is now a dedicated stream — invited participation from 13 countries and territories: the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. While the Marshall Islands, Samoa, and Kiribati opted out of the initial round, they remain eligible, and talks are underway about their participation in future ballots.

In designing the program, Australia has emphasised two-way mobility. Unlike typical permanent residency arrangements that penalise long absences, the Pacific engagement visas are structured to allow residents to move freely between Australia and their home islands, helping to ensure that relocation does not mean severing ties with cultural roots.

By Tamilla Hasanova