Flood-hit farms in Pakistan record $1 billion in damages over last month

Since mid-August, massive floods have caused more than $1 billion in damage to Pakistan’s agriculture sector, deepening the country’s food security crisis and forcing the government to declare an emergency. 

Flooding along the eastern Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers has displaced over 700,000 people and impacted more than 2 million. According to the relief commissioner of Punjab province, cited by Pakistan Today, floodwaters have also destroyed crops across more than 2,000 villages.

Wheat, cotton, and rice fields have been hit especially hard, with consumers already facing higher prices as a result. The United Nations’ resident representative in Pakistan recently warned that the floods also jeopardize rural livelihoods, since agriculture provides jobs for 40% of the workforce.

A report by the brokerage firm Arif Habib estimates that overall damages resulting in economic losses are roughly $1.4 billion, equal to 0.33% of Pakistan’s GDP, with almost three-quarters of the total impact or 0.24% of GDP in the agriculture sector alone. Production in that sector in some affected areas expected to decline by up to 20%.

The disaster has weighed heavily on Pakistan’s fragile recovery. After GDP growth of 6.2% in FY22, the economy shrank 0.2% in FY23 before rebounding 2.5% in FY24. Pre-flood forecasts had projected 3.4% growth for FY26, but AHL now expects only 3.2%, with agriculture’s contribution cut nearly in half, from 2.2% to 1.1%.

In response, Pakistan’s cabinet declared an agricultural emergency to assess crop losses nationwide and design compensation measures for farmers this week. 

“We will only know [the extent of the damage] after the waters recede, rehabilitation begins, people return and fields are assessed,” said Aamer Hayat Bhandara, a council member of the World Agriculture Forum, which advocates sustainable agricultural development.

Scientists believe climate change likely contributed to the flooding, highlighting the unproportionally heavy burden Pakistan has to carry due to climate change. They note that human-induced warming is making extreme rainfall more frequent and more intense. 

A study by the World Weather Attribution group found that the heavy monsoon rains between late June and late July—responsible for 300 deaths—were at least 15% stronger due to climate change, possibly more.

“Food security [in Pakistan] should be treated as [a] national security [issue],” Bhandara said, pointing to its close connection with climate change.

In the hardest-hit regions, households that traditionally relied on preserved stocks of wheat, rice, and other grains have seen them wiped out, “leaving communities highly vulnerable,” said Abdul Wahid, an associate professor in the accounting and finance department at the National University of Modern Languages in Islamabad.

By Nazrin Sadigova