Media: President Assad faces growing vulnerability as rebels capture Syria’s Aleppo

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad finds himself increasingly cornered by his refusal to make concessions, both domestically and internationally, as the country’s situation continues to deteriorate.

For over a year, as tensions between Israel and Iranian-backed forces escalated across the Middle East, Assad remained noticeably silent, Caliber.Az writes via FT.

With the civil war still raging, Syria's state is fractured and bankrupt, and the foreign backers propping up Assad—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—are distracted and weakened by their own crises. In this context, Assad chose to lie low, seemingly hedging his bets as the situation in the region intensified.

However, this week’s shock offensive by Islamist rebels, who swiftly captured Aleppo—the nation’s second-largest city—has exposed the fragility of Assad’s grip on power. Within 48 hours, the rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured the city and advanced towards Hama, further demonstrating the deep instability of the country.

“Assad is extremely vulnerable,” said Haid Haid, a Syrian analyst at Chatham House. “Everybody is waiting to see if the regime can mobilise its forces and allies to push back.”

The assault comes as Assad faces mounting pressure from multiple fronts. Israel has launched numerous strikes against Iranian-affiliated targets in Syria over the past year, warning Assad that his regime is in its sights. This has forced Assad into a precarious position, torn between maintaining alliances with Iran and its militant proxies or seeking a degree of autonomy from these foreign backers.

Meanwhile, with some Arab states and European powers reconsidering their stance on Assad, a chance seemed to emerge for the Syrian president to regain some international footing. It appeared the worst of Syria’s civil war might be over, leading to hopes of a shift toward addressing issues like refugees and drug smuggling.

But the swift rebel offensive has underscored Assad’s continuing reliance on Russia, Iran, and Iranian-backed militias. His forces, demoralized and struggling, quickly retreated as the rebels advanced. Pro-Assad forces crumbled as HTS captured Aleppo and pressed south, forcing Syrian and Russian warplanes to conduct airstrikes in an attempt to stem the tide.

“The situation is dire,” said Charles Lister from the Middle East Institute. “Military units one after another just fell back and abandoned their positions.”

Syria’s economic collapse has only worsened the regime’s position. The economy, already teetering on the brink for years, is crippled by mounting debts to foreign patrons, western sanctions, and the collapse of the Lebanese banking system, which had been a haven for Syrian businessmen. Syrians have grown increasingly impoverished, with the regime doing little to alleviate the suffering of the population.

“The regime’s corruption is embedded in every aspect of the state,” said Jihad Yazigi, a Syrian economic expert. "Rising taxes, land expropriation, and the deteriorating economy are compounded by a government that has done nothing to improve people's lives."

The Assad regime’s corruption and disregard for the suffering of ordinary Syrians has fueled widespread discontent, even among loyalists from Assad’s Alawite minority. Many are angry that, despite their loyalty, they are worse off than before the conflict began.

“Many are furious that after years of loyalty, they are even worse off than before,” Yazigi added.

The demoralization extends into Syria’s government institutions, which have been plagued by inefficiency. Attempts to professionalise the military have been insufficient, with low morale prevailing among soldiers who endure forced conscription and the loss of subsidies.

By Khagan Isayev