FT: Trump’s "America First" policy could lead to Ukraine peace deal without security guarantees

The world is witnessing a shift in power dynamics as the US, Russia, and China have all adopted revisionist approaches, aiming to disrupt the established global order, according to a recent article in the Financial Times.

As Donald Trump prepares for his inauguration as US president on January 20 — coinciding with the opening of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos — the stage is set for a clash of ideologies. The WEF, a hallmark of elite-driven globalization since the Cold War, brings together political and business leaders from around the world to discuss international cooperation and free trade. However, Trump, a staunch critic of "globalism," is at odds with this worldview. While Davos champions free trade and international cooperation, Trump pushes "America First" nationalism, prioritizing tariffs over trade agreements.

For nearly 30 years, the global powers embraced the Davos ethos of economic interdependence, downplaying geopolitical rivalries. Trump, along with China's President Xi Jinping and Russia's President Vladimir Putin, has addressed the WEF in the past, but their current policies signal a departure from this tradition.

According to the author, Trump's transactional nature and his focus on avoiding military conflict lead him to consider a new approach to foreign policy: a grand bargain with Russia and China. The US would tacitly recognize Russian and Chinese spheres of influence in their respective regions while focusing on asserting dominance within its own hemisphere. Under this deal, the US might soften its stance on Russia, easing sanctions, and even striking a peace deal in Ukraine without providing security guarantees. Simultaneously, Trump could ease tech restrictions and tariffs on China in exchange for Chinese purchases of US goods and favourable deals for American companies like Tesla. Additionally, he could signal a shift in US policy on Taiwan, leaving its defence to regional powers.

This reorientation of US foreign policy would lead to a reduced role for America’s allies in Europe and Asia, forcing them to shoulder more of their own defence responsibilities. The world would see a reduction in direct conflict between the US, China, Russia, and the EU. However, Trump’s America First policies on trade, security, and international institutions are expected to create a leadership vacuum, destabilizing the global order.

The global economy would be adversely impacted by trade wars, and civil conflicts in places like Sudan and Myanmar would intensify. With the UN paralyzed by great power rivalry, regional powers would engage in proxy conflicts over resources and influence, exacerbating global instability. Countries like Haiti could descend further into chaos, and increased refugee flows to the West would put pressure on political systems. Amid these turbulent times, populist movements rejecting liberal democracy would gain momentum, capitalizing on the widespread sense of social and economic insecurity.

In this new era, the article concludes, the world faces a reality where established powers act as revisionists, challenging the status quo and reshaping the global landscape in ways that could have far-reaching consequences.

By Tamilla Hasanova