Fuel supplies in Malian capital dwindle as al-Qaeda affiliates' grip continues

A months-long siege of the Malian capital, Bamako, by the al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has pushed the city to the brink, leaving residents desperate and increasing pressure on Mali’s military rulers to enter talks with the group — something they have so far refused to do.

Since September, JNIM fighters have sealed off major highways linking Mali to neighbouring Senegal and Ivory Coast, effectively imposing an economic and fuel blockade on the landlocked Sahel nation, as reported by Al Jazeera.

The move has paralyzed Bamako, where residents have struggled for weeks to find fuel for cars and motorcycles, grinding the capital’s normally bustling life to a halt.

The blockade followed a government decree issued on July 1, which banned small-scale fuel sales in rural areas outside official service stations — a measure aimed at choking JNIM’s supply lines and restricting its movement in areas under its control.

According to Beverly Ochieng, a Sahel analyst at Control Risks, the scale and impact of the blockade “is a sign of JNIM’s growing hold over Mali” and marks “a step towards the group’s stated aim of government change.”

Last week, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom, among others, advised their citizens to leave Mali, while embassies began withdrawing non-essential staff.

Who is JNIM?

Formed in 2017 through a merger of several armed factions, including al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Mali-based groups Ansar Dine, Al-Murabitun, and Katiba Macina, JNIM is today regarded as al-Qaeda’s most active affiliate in the Sahel, according to conflict monitor ACLED. Its main objectives are to seize territory, expel Western influence, and ultimately govern parts of Mali. Analysts estimate the group’s size at around 6,000 fighters.

Ulf Laessing, a Sahel expert at Germany’s Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), told Al Jazeera that JNIM is likely seeking to exploit growing dissatisfaction with the government to push for negotiations or even a power-sharing arrangement.

“They want to basically make people as angry as possible,” Laessing said. “They could [be trying] to provoke protests which could bring down the current government and bring in a new one that’s more favourable towards them.”

However, Laessing added that the group probably lacks the military strength to capture major urban centers and may find it difficult to gain support among city dwellers who do not share the same grievances as rural communities.

While JNIM’s operations are centered in Mali, its roots trace back to Algeria, through AQIM. The group is led by Iyad Ag-Ghali, an ethnic Tuareg from Mali’s Kidal region who once spearheaded the Tuareg rebellions of the early 1990s demanding an independent state called Azawad.

Ag-Ghali later served as a government negotiator and even as a diplomat in Saudi Arabia under President Amadou Toumani Touré, before founding Ansar Dine in 2012, whose goal was to enforce its version of Islamic law across Mali.

According to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Ag-Ghali’s current strategy for JNIM is to expand its influence across West Africa, weaken state forces and rival groups — including the Islamic State Sahel Province — through guerrilla warfare and improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

By Nazrin Sadigova