Historic El Niño on horizon as global weather risks mount

A rapidly strengthening El Niño is raising the prospect of an exceptional climate event later this year, with potentially far-reaching consequences including drought, flooding, extreme heat and wildfires.

The latest U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outlook says El Niño is already present and strengthening, with more than a 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. NOAA puts the probability of an “historic” event in October-December at 69%, meaning it could surpass previous El Niño events recorded since 1950, as per Anadolu Agency.

That marks an escalation from forecasts issued earlier this year. In June, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) estimated an 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August and around a 90% chance of it lasting through at least November. NOAA then put the probability of a very strong event later in 2026 or early 2027 at 63%.

Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the State University of New York at Albany, said the developing event had repeatedly exceeded forecasts.

“Beginning in April, this event was already exceeding most observed past events,” Roundy told Anadolu, adding that it had accumulated more east Pacific warm-water volume than any El Niño since 1950 and potentially much further back. “I think 69% is conservative, given that the event has already exceeded the intensities of the strongest events of the 20th century by the best measures we have,” he said.

El Nino occurs when unusually warm waters spread across the central and eastern tropical Pacific as trade winds weaken or reverse, disrupting atmospheric circulation worldwide. NOAA said eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface anomalies exceeded 2C in July, while subsurface anomalies reached 10C.

The phenomenon typically lasts nine to 12 months and occurs every two to seven years. Its effects vary by region. Roundy expects drought and heightened wildfire risks in Indonesia and the lower Amazon, while Northeast Africa and Argentina could see heavier rainfall. California and parts of the southern United States could experience “possibly historic levels” of rain in December-February, while parts of the northern US could be drier.

The event is expected to peak between November and January, although impacts could persist into spring 2027.

Climate change adds another layer of uncertainty. “Climate change has warmed the west Pacific source water, allowing the event to get a little stronger,” Roundy said, although broader ocean warming can reduce temperature contrasts and moderate some impacts.

Despite the risks, Roundy said, “The world is now better prepared to handle the impacts of extreme El Niño events than in the past.”

By Tamilla Hasanova