How Spain evolved into NATO's sceptical "black sheep"

Many observers hailed June’s NATO summit as “historic” for its landmark pledge by core member states to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 — a major jump from the current 2% target. President Trump, a key driver of the increase, framed the summit as a major foreign policy win. However, Spain’s outright refusal to meet the 5% goal just a few days earlier threatened to derail the event.

Though Madrid signed the final communiqué, it secured a concession from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte allowing it to raise military spending only to 2.1% for now, with a review in 2029. An article published by The Conversation portrays how Spain has grown to become the most critically outspoken member in the alliance, with the lowest contribution rates.

Speaking after the exemption was granted, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said the deal lets Spain meet NATO obligations without major investment hikes. Sánchez’s stance angered Trump, who publicly criticized Spain: “They want a little bit of a free ride … but I’m not going to let that happen.” The dispute comes amid broader EU-US tensions, with Trump threatening tariffs to pressure NATO members. After the summit, he warned: “We’re negotiating with Spain on a trade deal. We’re going to make them pay twice as much.”

Resistance to the 5% target

For decades, NATO’s benchmark was 2% of GDP, which many members still struggled to meet. The new 5% target, pushed by Washington amid heightened geopolitical threats, is backed by core European states eager to counter Russian aggression and modernize forces.

Spain, spending just under 1.3% of GDP on defence (the lowest in NATO), argues the leap to 5% is financially and politically impossible. Sánchez’s coalition includes the left-wing Podemos party and several pro-independence groups opposed to militarization. Public opinion also favours focusing on southern flank threats — migration and Sahel instability — over a Russia-focused buildup. Officials at the summit argued that not all threats require “frigates and armaments.” They also note the US demands 5% from allies while spending just 3.4% of its GDP in 2024.

Quiet simmering of frustration among members

Though no other country went so far as to flat-out reject the 5% proposal, Spain isn’t alone with its critical stance. Slovakia has voiced mixed signals: President Peter Pellegrini backed the target, but PM Robert Fico recently said “neutrality would suit Slovakia.” Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart de Wever called 3.5% within 10 years more realistic.

Divisions run along both geographic and economic lines, with the article noting that Eastern states like Poland and the Baltics see higher spending as existential; southern and western members such as Spain, Italy, and Belgium stress hybrid threats and strategic autonomy. Despite sharing a border with Ukraine, Slovakia appears closer in outlook to Spain than Poland.

Economically, high debt burdens — 105% of GDP for Belgium, 113% for France, and 135% for Italy — make 5% spending politically toxic, as it would force cuts to healthcare and education. While many allies signed the pledge, several privately admit they won’t meet it.

Spain’s defiance may set a precedent. Italy, Belgium, and even Germany also harbour doubts about sustaining long-term budget hikes. Disparities in meeting the goal will likely deepen NATO’s internal tensions and strain ties with Washington.

If nothing else, the article argues that Madrid’s stance has underscored a stark reality: NATO unity under pressure is harder to maintain than ever.

By Nazrin Sadigova