How Trump made upcoming Canadian elections all about himself

By repeatedly proposing that Canada join the United States as its 51st state, US President Donald Trump shifted the focus of Canada’s upcoming federal election away from the Liberal government’s shortcomings and onto himself. Originally, the election narrative centred on dissatisfaction with the decade-long Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau, whose resignation had left the party struggling to find a successor against the rising popularity of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.

Poilievre’s “common sense” campaign, emphasising the Liberal government's mismanagement of the economy, immigration, and COVID-19 response, initially positioned him as the clear favourite. However, as an article by The National Interest highlights, the Liberal Party’s election of the former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, Mark Carney, as their new leader in March 2025 complicated Poilievre’s path to victory.

Carney brought a fresh face and a reputation for economic competence, quickly moving to rebuild trade relations with France and the UK and invest in businesses harmed by US tariffs. His political brand, built around the “elbows up” motto, symbolized Canadian resilience and opposition to Trump’s rhetoric, drawing inspiration from hockey legend Gordie Howe.

Trump’s comments, posted on his Truth Social platform in late 2024, questioned why the US "subsidizes" Canada and suggested that many Canadians would benefit from joining the US as the 51st state. He further disrupted Canadian politics by criticizing not only Liberal leadership but also Poilievre himself, labelling the Conservative leader unfavourably and showing indifference toward who wins Canada’s election.

As a result, the campaign conversation shifted away from internal Canadian issues to the external challenge of defending national sovereignty. Carney used this new focus to his advantage, emphasizing his firm stance against Trump’s suggestions while maintaining diplomatic dialogue. After a phone call between the two leaders, Carney stated that Trump treated him as Canada’s prime minister, but he later disclosed that Trump continued referring to Canada as a “fifty-first state.”

According to the article, this inflammatory rhetoric placed Carney in a difficult position. Opposition parties like the Conservatives, the New Democratic Party (NDP), and the Bloc Québécois criticized him for giving Canadians false hope that he could manage Trump effectively. Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet questioned Carney’s crisis management skills, while Poilievre accused him of failing to control the narrative around Trump’s provocations.

Despite these criticisms, the Liberal Party holds a narrow lead in polls, with 42% support compared to the Conservatives’ 38%, as of three days before the election. Nonetheless, the margin is slim, and with Canadian nationalism now a central theme, the election remains highly unpredictable.

Trump, in a reflection on his first 100 days back in office, insisted he was “not trolling” about Canada’s potential statehood, claiming the US no longer needs Canadian resources like lumber, energy, or cars. The authors believe that his persistent remarks have turned an election about domestic policy into a referendum on Canada’s sovereignty.

As Canadians prepare to head to the polls, political uncertainty looms large, ensuring a tense and critical election weekend for the nation.

By Nazrin Sadigova