Kremlin using Medvedev for nuclear intimidation, says US think tank

The nuclear threats made by Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, against the United States are part of a broader Kremlin campaign of nuclear intimidation, according to a report by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW analysts view Medvedev’s statements as a reflexive control tactic aimed at creating panic and fear among Western political leaders to deter support for Ukraine. They note that Russian President Vladimir Putin frequently uses Medvedev, a former president, to amplify radical rhetoric that aligns with Kremlin goals.

"The Kremlin continued its nuclear threats against the United States prior to the ordered deployment of US nuclear submarines on August 1 – demonstrating that Medvedev's threats are part of a wider Kremlin nuclear sabre-rattling campaign," the report says.

 Medvedev’s provocative and threatening remarks are understood to be part of a centralised Kremlin information strategy. The report points out that Putin could easily halt such statements if he chose to, given the Kremlin’s tight control over official messaging, media, and the internet in Russia.

These events unfolded shortly after US President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of two American nuclear submarines closer to Russia, presumably in response to Medvedev’s nuclear threats. Trump stated that he instructed military authorities to position the submarines "in the appropriate regions" following Medvedev’s “highly provocative statements.” He emphasised that the move was precautionary, “just in case” Medvedev’s warnings were more than mere rhetoric. Trump had earlier cautioned Medvedev to “watch his words,” warning him that he was “entering very dangerous territory.”

In response, Medvedev posted on his Telegram channels in both English and Russian, asserting that Russia was “doing everything right” and would continue on its path. He also referenced Russia’s automatic or semi-automatic nuclear weapons control system, known as the “Dead Hand” or “Perimeter,” signalling a readiness to escalate if necessary.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Medvedev is not the primary decision-maker but stressed that his words should not be dismissed. Rubio described Medvedev as a provocateur whose statements still carry weight and influence within the Russian government.

Overall, the ISW report concludes that Medvedev’s nuclear threats are a deliberate component of the Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail campaign, designed to intimidate the West and manipulate geopolitical perceptions in Russia’s favour.

By Tamilla Hasanova