How will Georgia's mediation affect the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process? Facing new dilemma

The Karabakh conflict, which has persisted for the past century, appears to have reached its inevitable conclusion. In the post-September measures, Azerbaijan believes that this conflict is over as the country’s territorial integrity was fully restored as a result of the anti-terrorist operation. On September 20, the separatists agreed to full disarmament and withdrawal. On September 28, the so-called leadership of the Armenian separatist regime in the Karabakh region announced its self-dissolution. Indeed, the results of the operation significantly shifted the regional balance of power in the South Caucasus, paving the way for durable peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

As such, according to the Armenian government, the sides have reached an agreement on three core principles of a deal while details remain to be settled. Moreover, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in his address to the parliament, stressed that a peace deal is realistic if the sides remain faithful to the principles of mutual recognition of territorial integrity, delimitation/demarcation of the shared border based on the 1991 Almaty declaration and the opening of transport links in a way that respects the two countries' sovereignty and customs laws.

However, the EU's mediation role in the current peace negotiations is undermined as official Baku critically approaches some EU member countries' anti-Azerbaijani statements. As a result, Azerbaijan distanced itself from the EU and "took a pause" from the Brussels format, turning toward regional powers like Türkiye and Russia. Considering the importance of regional powers’ mediation, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev proposed Georgia, its long-term strategic partner, act as a mediator in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan.

In this regard, Georgia is an ideal candidate for this role, given that it maintains equally positive relations with Baku and Yerevan while accommodating both ethnic Azerbaijani and Armenian communities on its soil. Consequently, the Georgian government appeared to be very enthusiastic regarding the proposal, as Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili pointed out that “Tbilisi is always ready to take part in this process.”

Georgia is a relatively small country that does not involve geopolitical ambitions. Both historical-cultural and geographical proximity should be mainly evaluated. Moreover, Tbilisi is no stranger to the negotiation process. Some time ago, the meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, took place in Georgia.

Georgia's involvement in the peace process of Karabakh has many prospects. For example, Georgia is one of the rare countries where Azerbaijani and Armenian ethnic communities coexist harmoniously. Also, ethnic Georgians living in Azerbaijan preserve their identity like other ethnic groups. There have been two tracks of mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan since Azerbaijan's victory in the 2020 Second Karabakh War, which saw it regain most of the territory it lost in the first war in the early 1990s. One track is overseen by Russia, and the other by the EU with the support of the U.S.

In fact, this is not the first time Georgia has brokered negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In June 2021, the prime minister of Georgia brokered the release of fifteen Armenian servicemen who were detained in Azerbaijani territory after a ceasefire agreement was signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia in November 2020. Under the deal, Yerevan gave Baku a small portion of the maps of minefields in the liberated Azerbaijani lands. This was one of the stages of the demining of the territory of Aghdam, the rebuilding of which is part of the grand plan for Azerbaijani post-conflict recovery.

As for Georgia, with its current national interests and foreign policy priorities, such as strengthening its security and sovereignty and also pursuing Euro-Atlantic integration, needs a stable neighbourhood. This incentivizes Tbilisi to contribute to building stability by employing all the instruments in its hands.

The South Caucasus region is about to enter a new stage after a long period of frozen conflicts and security gaps threatening the regional states national security and the Eurasian region in a broader context. As a result, the entire region will become a different geo-economic space. In this regard, Baku sees the current situation as a real opportunity and a decisive moment not only for Azerbaijan but also for the whole region to establish a new regional order. Hence, Tbilisi should continue cooperating with its neighbouring countries and the West and activate the Peaceful Neighborhood Initiative.