Iran's election exposes regime's fragility Illusion of reform

In an article for The Hill, Ramesh Sepehrrad examines the recent presidential election in Iran, highlighting the illusion of reform and the crumbling stability of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's regime. The election, characterized by historically low voter turnout and widespread public disapproval, reflects deep-seated frustration and disillusionment within Iranian society.

The election of Masoud Pezeshkian, labelled a reformist by some, is seen as a strategic move within a controlled political system rather than a genuine shift towards reform. Pezeshkian's narrow victory over hardliner Saeed Jalili underscores the tactical manoeuvring within the regime. His admission that "Khamenei sets all plans and policies, and straying from them is my redline" signals that no significant changes are expected under his administration, highlighting the president's largely ceremonial role.

Khamenei's grip on power appears increasingly fragile amidst internal conflicts, economic difficulties, and societal rejection. The death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash disrupted Khamenei's plans to further consolidate power, exposing vulnerabilities within the regime's leadership. The election of Pezeshkian, a result of hardliner infighting, suggests Khamenei's waning influence even within his own ranks.

Despite Khamenei's endorsement of Pezeshkian and his accusations against external "enemies" for the election boycott, the regime's legitimacy is severely undermined by the mass abstention from voting. Officially, at least 60% of Iranians boycotted the election, with opposition groups claiming the number could be as high as 91%. This significant abstention signals a profound disillusionment and the potential for a nationwide uprising, reminiscent of the 1979 revolution.

Pezeshkian's alignment with figures like former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his advocacy for better relations with the West and less stringent enforcement of the hijab law are seen as propaganda efforts to appease the international community. However, these moves do not address the deep-seated issues within Iranian society, such as the brutal crackdowns since the 2022 protests, increased penalties for women who defy dress codes, and the economic mismanagement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The lack of public celebration following Pezeshkian's victory underscores the regime's fragile legitimacy and the daunting challenges ahead. His administration is expected to face internal strife, backlash from the Revolutionary Guard, and an uncertain succession for Khamenei. As the regime navigates this precarious juncture, significant upheaval looms, with the potential for a major shift driven by growing resistance advocating for a non-nuclear, secular republic in Iran.

Ramesh Sepehrrad, Ph.D., is an Iranian-American author and scholar with advanced degrees from the Carter School of Peace and Conflict Resolution at George Mason University. She is a professor of practice in cybersecurity at the University of Connecticut and currently teaches Middle East studies at the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Baltimore.