Is asteroid mining closer than we think?

Thirty years ago, the BBC’s science program made bold predictions for 2025, including microchip implants for ATM access, holographic assistants, and even riots over internet access. While some of these predictions have materialized, asteroid mining remains in its infancy—though some startups believe it will happen sooner than many expect.

California-based AstroForge, founded by Matt Gialich, aims to be the first to mine asteroids. Yet as the asteroid mining start-up's latest mission experiences difficulties after take-off, an article by the BBC looks at how close we really are extracting rare minerals from the many celestial bodies floating above us.

On February 27, 2025, the company launched its $6.5 million unmanned spacecraft, Odin, aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. Initially, the mission progressed as planned, with Odin passing beyond the Moon into deep space. However, the company soon lost communication with the spacecraft, though it hopes Odin is still on track for its nine-month journey to asteroid 2022 OB5, eight million kilometers from Earth.

Gialich remains undeterred despite technical hurdles, embodying the company’s mantra: "Move fast and break rocks." He acknowledges that these setbacks are part of the process: “Yes, there are a lot more baby steps to take, but we're going to start to actually do it. You have to try.”

Why mine asteroids?

AstroForge’s goal is to extract platinum-group metals, essential for fuel cells and renewable technology. These metals are increasingly difficult to mine on Earth due to financial, environmental, social, and geopolitical costs. While bringing metals back from space is still speculative, their potential value is enormous—one kilogram of rhodium is currently priced at $183,000.

Over the next decade, AstroForge aims to extract small metal quantities, starting with a few grams and gradually scaling to kilograms. Whether this leads to commercial viability remains uncertain, but Victor Vescovo, an investor and deep-sea explorer, sees the challenge as a solvable one: “Bring back a few micrograms to show it can be done and then scaling the process up is relatively straightforward.”

Skeptics question whether asteroid mining is truly feasible. Ian Lange, associate professor at the Colorado School of Mines, points out key technical challenges, including the lack of gravity in space:

“Mining—separating ore from dirt—is relatively straightforward, but then some kind of chemical or heat process, and gravity, is required to separate what we want from what we don't. Reproducing that in space is going to be much harder.”

Historically, NASA explored asteroid mining concepts in the 1980s, and growing environmental concerns in the 1990s fueled further interest. However, past startups like Moon Express, Planetary Resources, and Deep Space Industries struggled with high development costs. Lange believes asteroid mining remains at least 30 years away.

Technological breakthroughs changing the game

Despite scepticism, rapid technological advancements over the past decade have increased optimism. The soon-to-be-completed Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile will enhance asteroid tracking. Spectrographic analysis and optics now make identifying viable asteroids easier. Additionally, spacecraft can now be built with more affordable, off-the-shelf components.

Joel Sercel, founder of TransAstra, argues that asteroid mining is no longer an exclusive government endeavor: “It wasn't long ago that only governments could do this kind of thing or had access to the technology, and they never used it with much efficiency. Now we have a vibrant private space business that's going to make asteroid mining happen vastly sooner than people predict.”

The biggest catalyst has been the privatization of the space industry and reusable rockets, making space travel cheaper than ever. Vescovo highlights this shift: “We've gone from it costing $10,000 to put 450g into space 15 years ago, to a few thousand now. And with the likes of SpaceX's Starship, the prospect of it costing hundreds of dollars in the near future.”

Environmental and geopolitical implications

Mining on Earth is notoriously destructive, with platinum mining emitting 40,000kg of CO2 per kilogram of platinum produced. A 2018 study by the University of Paris-Saclay found that asteroid mining could cut this to 150kg of CO2 per kilogram, making space mining a potential solution to Earth's resource depletion.

However, Daynan Crull, founder of Karmen+, believes asteroid mining’s future lies in supporting the space economy rather than bringing resources back to Earth. The World Economic Forum predicts the space economy will be worth $1.8 trillion (£1.4 trillion) by 2035, underscoring the potential.

Deganit Paikowsky, a scholar at George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute, warns that asteroid mining could disrupt the global balance of power. Nations rich in terrestrial minerals may lose economic leverage to technologically advanced nations that control space mining.

“It's one thing to mine resources in space for use in space. But it's another thing to bring those resources back to Earth for use in an [established] Earth economy. That's going to impact many different stakeholders in many ways.”

Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson famously predicted that the first trillionaire will emerge from asteroid mining. Whether that prediction holds true remains to be seen, but Vescovo is hopeful:"I do hope he's not wrong."

By Nazrin Sadigova