Is OPEC entering new era after UAE’s exit?

The United Arab Emirates has decided to leave OPEC after nearly six decades of membership, according to a report citing the country’s energy minister, in a move that could reshape internal dynamics within the oil-producing group.

The UAE will exit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on May 1, the report said, adding that officials described the decision as the result of a “comprehensive review” of the country’s current and future production strategy, The Globe and Mail reports.

The energy minister was quoted as saying the decision was based on “national interest,” without giving further details. The report characterised the move as reflecting long-standing frustration in Abu Dhabi over production limits set under OPEC’s quota system.

The UAE, one of the group’s key swing producers, has an estimated production capacity of around 4.8 million barrels per day, but its output has been constrained by a quota of roughly 3.4 million barrels per day, according to industry estimates cited in the report.

The departure would mark another setback for OPEC, which has already seen members including Qatar, Ecuador, Indonesia and Angola leave over the past decades, often citing disagreements over production caps and revenue constraints.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, has historically played a central role in coordinating output policy among member states. The UAE’s exit could complicate efforts to manage supply and stabilise prices, particularly amid broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The report also linked the decision to broader regional developments, including strained relations between Gulf states and shifting security dynamics, though it did not provide independent confirmation of those factors.

Oil markets have been volatile in recent months amid conflict risks and supply concerns, with analysts warning that any structural change in OPEC membership could add further uncertainty.

By Aghakazim Guliyev