Israel's escalations backfire as Saudi Arabia aligns closer with Iran

An article from Foreign Affairs offers a detailed analysis of Israel’s recent military and diplomatic strategies in the Middle East, highlighting their unintended consequences, especially concerning Saudi Arabia’s shifting regional posture.

The central argument is that Israel’s reliance on military escalation and its efforts to isolate Iran have backfired, pushing Saudi Arabia closer to Iran rather than toward normalization with Israel. This miscalculation stems from Israel’s assumption that shared security concerns, particularly over Iran, would override Arab states' support for Palestinian statehood. The article underscores that Saudi Arabia’s approach is more nuanced, combining a commitment to Palestinian sovereignty with strategic engagements involving the United States, Iran, and other global powers like China.

One of the key takeaways is Saudi Arabia’s evolution as a central stabilizing force in the Middle East. Riyadh’s strategy balances relations with Iran and the United States while conditioning any normalization with Israel on progress toward a Palestinian state. This dual-track policy has allowed Saudi Arabia to protect its national interests—such as securing maritime routes and energy installations—while positioning itself as a leader advocating for Palestinian rights. For instance, the kingdom hosted major summits and formed new coalitions to unify Arab and global support for a two-state solution.

The article further illustrates how Saudi Arabia’s recalibration has resonated across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). States like Qatar and the UAE have leveraged their unique roles to mediate conflicts and address humanitarian crises, demonstrating a collective Gulf strategy of hedging between regional powers. This cohesion contrasts sharply with Israel’s increasingly isolated stance, as its reliance on military power alienates potential allies and strengthens Saudi-Iran ties.

Finally, the article emphasizes the changing global context. It challenges the assumptions of the Abraham Accords, arguing that the current regional dynamics demand a broader framework that includes Palestinian statehood and reduces reliance on U.S.-centric alliances. It suggests that Saudi Arabia’s balancing act could de-escalate regional tensions, serving as a bridge between Iran, Israel, and the global powers.

In conclusion, the article asserts that Riyadh’s leadership and its insistence on a two-state solution are reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics. By prioritizing a balanced, multilateral approach, Saudi Arabia has positioned itself to moderate regional tensions while demonstrating that peace and stability cannot bypass Palestinian sovereignty. This shift, the author argues, should be welcomed by the United States as a step toward a more sustainable Middle East.