Israeli – Iran escalation threatens to set the war-torn region on flame The usual suspect carries out more air raids

Since April 1, Israel's low-intensity conflict with Iran and its proxies in Syria has escalated significantly. Israel was suspected of carrying out three aerial attacks on Iranian targets inside Syria, while the Israeli army downed an object coming from Syria through its northern border. However, the Israeli military declined to comment on the reported strikes in Syria, most likely not to drag too much international attention.

The most recent Israeli attack targeted a military airport used by the Iranian-allied Hezbollah organization to conduct weapons training and testing in the central Syrian region of Homs. These recent attacks continue a decades-long pattern of largely unclaimed tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran in what is described as a “shadow war” with fronts on land, air, and sea.

Israel has increasingly targeted alleged military sites run by Iran and its proxies in Syria. It has carried out nine such attacks so far this year. Israel has for years carried out attacks against what it has described as Iran-linked targets in Syria, where Tehran’s influence has grown since it began supporting Bashar Assad in the civil war that began in 2011. Notwithstanding, Syria still denies that Tehran, which militarily backs President Bashar al-Assad, has an extensive military presence in the country.

The frequent air raids of Israeli Air Forces in Syria are aimed at targeting Iranian military advisors deployed in Syria. As such, another attack on April 2 killed two members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who Iran hailed as "martyrs" who died fighting "terrorism". Iranian-backed groups, including Iraqi militias and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have positions around Damascus and in Syria’s north, east and south.

Consequently, such air raids of Israeli forces stem from security concerns, particularly in border areas with Lebanon, where Iranian-linked proxy groups enjoy vast freedom and maintain deep roots. Moreover, the current attacks in Syria mainly were a reactionary move of Tel-Aviv to a recent terrorist attack in Jerusalem perpetrated by a militant that infiltrated Lebanon's border. In this regard, Israel sought to respond to the attack without being dragged into a broad escalation with Hezbollah.

A direct Israeli attack on the Shiite group in Lebanon would probably trigger retaliation from Iran with grave repercussions for regional stability. While the latest strikes are part of a pattern of escalation, an immediate and major escalation will be unlikely

Iran steadily boosts assertive policy against Israel while pushing for diplomatic normalization with Arab neighbours, including Saudi Arabia. Given its normalization with Saudi Arabia and the pressure it is under from China to lower tensions with Riyadh, Iran determined to re-route all its resources and attention to its long-term confrontation with arch-foe Israel. China brokered the deal last month that committed regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia to ending a seven-year diplomatic rift and reopening their diplomatic missions within two months.

In the meantime, Iran eyes new talks with the Western countries to strike a new nuclear deal, something that Israel strictly opposes. Nevertheless, Iran’s current hardline administration appears less interested in nuclear diplomacy as Tehran’s nuclear capabilities advance. In line with Israeli attacks in Syria, Iran attempted to take revenge by dispatching a drone into Israeli airspace, even though it was intercepted and did not cause damage.

However, it became a significant signal for Israel, which it cannot ignore. Although Israel’s political stability came under threat in light of mass riots against PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s ultranationalist government, official Tel-Aviv seems confident that internal argument in Israel doesn't harm determination, intensity, or capabilities to act against sworn enemies, namely Iran.

It is evident that the two conservative administrations in Israel and Iran will not retreat from their position and view each other as an existential threat to their national security. Although the US and Europe appeared less enthusiastic about escalation tensions with Iran, Tehran and Tel-Aviv will not miss any chance to carry out a fatal strike.