Middle East rift Israel and Iran exchange strikes

Israel’s military operation against Iran abruptly interrupted a cycle of complex negotiations between Washington and Tehran, escalating the situation in this strategically important region. To recall: the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) and the United States had conducted five rounds of indirect talks on Iran’s nuclear dossier and were preparing for a sixth round scheduled for June 15 in Oman’s capital, Muscat. However, on the night of June 13, Israel launched a series of strikes on key targets within Iranian territory.

Israel’s targets

The targets of Israel’s attack included elements of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear infrastructure, facilities linked to its ballistic missile program, high-ranking military commanders, and the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Residential areas in Tehran and other cities were also hit.

According to Iranian state media, the former head of Iran’s national security, Ali Shamkhani; the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Bagheri; the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami; the commander of the Central Headquarters “Khatam al-Anbiya,” Gholam Ali Rashid; nuclear scientist and former head of the Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoon Abbasi; as well as nuclear program specialist Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi were killed.

Thus, during the military operation aimed at undermining Tehran’s nuclear program, Israel eliminated several key figures of Iran’s military and scientific establishment. At the same time, officials in Tel Aviv stated that their plan is to “permanently deprive Iran of the ability to develop nuclear weapons.”

According to the official spokesperson of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the operation was carried out with precise intelligence support from the relevant units. As a result of the strikes, dozens of launchers, ground-to-ground missile depots, and other military facilities were destroyed. In particular, at one site in western Iran, the IDF identified a special launching mechanism installed inside containers. The spokesperson also noted that “Iran possesses missiles with ranges of several thousand kilometres, and their presence in the Islamic Republic’s arsenal poses a threat both to the region and the world.”

Iran’s response

Iran’s retaliatory measures were swift. In an official statement distributed by the IRNA news agency, the Islamic Republic’s authorities emphasised that the “nighttime aggression of the Zionist regime against the Homeland” demonstrated Israel’s disregard for all international norms and its willingness to “officially and openly commit terrorist acts and ignite war.”

“Starting a war with Iran is playing with fire and a bold provocation against a lion. Such nighttime operations, especially at a time when diplomatic negotiations on the nuclear issue were underway, reflect this regime’s fear of Iran’s strength and its inability to contain Iran by diplomatic means,” the statement said. Assuring that the response will be decisive, united, and uncompromising, Tehran declared that retaliation would come shortly.

As a consequence, the launch of more than 100 Iranian drones was recorded. According to officials from the Israel Defense Forces, all of them were launched directly from Iranian territory.

Meanwhile, President Masoud Pezeshkian, in his speech, stated that the legitimate and powerful response of the Islamic Republic of Iran would make “the enemy regret its foolish actions.” According to Mehr news agency, in his televised address, he stressed that “the Iranian nation and the country’s officials will not remain silent in the face of this crime, and the legitimate and powerful response of the Islamic Republic of Iran will make the enemy regret its foolish actions.”

The president also stated that Israeli aggression constitutes a violation of all international obligations: “Just as the Islamic Republic has made every effort to achieve peace and stability both globally and regionally and has demonstrated its full readiness for long-term dialogue and confidence-building worldwide, it will act decisively in response to aggression and in the legitimate defence of the country’s territorial integrity.”

The U.S. position before and after

Against this backdrop, the position of the United States gains particular significance.

On June 12, ABC News, citing sources close to the situation, reported that Israel might strike Iran in the coming days. Meanwhile, on the same day, The New York Times noted that Iranian authorities had developed a plan for retaliatory missile strikes against Israel in case of an Israeli attack.
Ahead of Israel’s operation against Iran, CBS, citing U.S. sources, reported that Israel had informed American officials of its readiness to launch an anti-Iran military operation.

The State of Israel is the closest U.S. ally outside of NATO, so it is unsurprising that the United States was privy to Tel Aviv’s plans. Most likely, the attack on Iran is a coordinated decision between Washington and Tel Aviv due to their unified stance on Iran’s nuclear dossier. Therefore, claims that Israel resorted to a military solution solely because of Iran’s categorical refusal to halt its nuclear program are not entirely convincing.

First, it should be noted that after five rounds of negotiations, the U.S. did not make any compromises with Iran regarding the lifting of sanctions. The likelihood that this issue could have been resolved during the sixth round of talks in Oman was very slim.

Second, the possibility of a military scenario against Iran has never been off the U.S. agenda. It is worth recalling that in February of this year, the American president said in an interview with the New York Post: “I would like a deal done with Iran on non-nuclear. I would prefer that to bombing the hell out of it…” — and added that if an agreement were reached, Israel would not bomb Iran.

Thus, even at that time, Trump made it clear to Tehran that if the nuclear negotiations did not yield results favourable to the United States, a military scenario would be inevitable.

However, following the Israeli strikes, the U.S. sought to distance itself from Israel’s military action. According to Reuters, two American officials stated that the U.S. was not involved in the Israeli attack, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that Washington was not connected to the Israeli strikes on Iran.

Nevertheless, the Islamic Republic of Iran questioned the U.S.’s claimed non-involvement, arguing that such an operation could not have occurred without coordination and approval from Washington.

“The responsibility for the Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites lies, in part, with the United States. Iran has the right to take retaliatory measures against Israel,” said a statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

Indeed, later the U.S. president declared his readiness to support Israel in the event that the country faces retaliatory strikes from Iran following today’s attack. He also posted on his Truth Social page, urging the Islamic Republic of Iran to make a deal before it’s too late.

“..Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!” reads the U.S. president’s post. This message from Trump to the Iranian leadership carries the implication that escalation can still be stopped.

Military capabilities of the two countries

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu states that in the escalation with Iran, the country relies on its own strength.

If we compare the military potential of Israel and Iran, then in 2024, according to the Global Firepower military strength ranking, the Israeli army ranked 17th in the world out of 145 countries, and third in the Middle East, after Türkiye and Iran.

In the global ranking, which is based on more than 60 factors, including the number of military units and funding, Israel is in the top 20. According to open sources, the country has about 170,000 active military personnel and 465,000 reservists.

According to the 2024 Global Firepower Index, in terms of overall military strength, the Israeli and Iranian armies are not very different from each other — Iran ranked 14th. At the same time, the Iranian armed forces are the largest in the Middle East by the number of active troops, consisting of approximately 610,000 active military personnel, as well as 350,000 reservists and trained military personnel who can be mobilised if necessary, resulting in a total armed forces personnel of about 960,000.

In January 2025, Global Firepower placed Iran 16th among 145 countries in terms of firepower, and Israel 15th.

On January 10 of this year, the Islamic Republic of Iran opened a top-secret underground missile facility dedicated to the development of ballistic missiles. In this regard, the Belgian portal Army Recognition noted that this presentation revealed only 10 per cent of Iran’s capabilities.

However, even if the military capabilities of Israel and Iran are almost comparable, this should not be a reason for a large-scale war in this already war-torn region plagued by endless conflicts. In such a case, a powerful escalation and a serious humanitarian catastrophe would affect not only the entire Greater Middle East but also the neighbouring regions.