EU’s “shadow fleet” tactics may drag US into Russia conflict

The European Union’s recent escalation in targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers risks expanding the Ukraine conflict and drawing the US further into military tensions with Russia.

As part of the EU’s 17th package of sanctions against Russia announced in May, the bloc has banned these vessels from accessing EU ports, national waters, and maritime economic zones, with ships entering such areas facing potential seizure and confiscation, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

This move, reportedly made without consulting Washington, has already led to heightened confrontations. On May 15, an Estonian patrol boat attempted to inspect a tanker in the Gulf of Finland but retreated after a Russian fighter jet flew overhead. Earlier in January, the German navy seized the Panamanian-flagged tanker Eventin after it drifted into German territorial waters.

Sweden has now declared it will begin inspecting and potentially seizing suspicious vessels passing through its exclusive economic zone starting July 1, supported by the Swedish air force. This effectively threatens to block Russian trade through the Baltic Sea, including cutting off Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave surrounded by NATO countries.

The Swedish move assumes that the Russian navy and air force in the Baltic are too weak to respond, and that the US would intervene if a military clash occurred. However, these EU and Swedish decisions were taken without US approval and are not covered by NATO’s Article 5, raising questions about the risk of escalation.

The EU’s campaign against the “shadow fleet” has also involved covert attacks. In December 2024, the Russian cargo ship Ursa Major sank off Libya following an explosion that killed two crew members. Reuters reported the attacks on several tankers in the Mediterranean as “causes unknown,” though the likely perpetrators remain unacknowledged.

As the report warns, “If the Russians do sink a Swedish or Estonian warship, the Trump administration will face a terribly difficult decision on how to respond... intervene and risk a direct war with Russia, or stand aside and ensure a deep crisis with Europe.”

The US is also urged to consider the global impact of these sanctions, especially on key partners like India, and to caution Europe that any maritime clashes with Russia would be Europe’s responsibility to manage. Given rising tensions with Iran, Washington’s focus on avoiding further conflict with Russia is critical for global stability and energy markets.

European governments, the report concludes, “seem to have lost any ability to analyze the possible wider consequences of their actions,” leaving the US to “do their thinking for them."

By Vafa Guliyeva