ISW analysts: Rising tensions as SNA and PKK/YPG stand off in northern Syria map

In a tense and evolving situation in northeast Syria, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), also known as the PKK/YPG terrorist group, and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) have agreed to extend a temporary ceasefire "until the end of the week," according to a report by the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Initially scheduled to last from December 12 to 16, the ceasefire was extended after the SNA and Turkish Armed Forces mobilized artillery and forward units around the contested area of Ein al-Arab (Kobani) on December 17, Caliber.Az reports referring to ISW analysts.

However, despite the truce, heavy clashes broke out when PKK/YPG forces engaged the SNA at the Tishrin Dam on December 17, although fighting remained largely confined to that area.

The ISW speculates that, once the ceasefire expires, the SNA and Turkish forces may launch a full-scale offensive aimed at reclaiming Ein al-Arab and other territories controlled by the PKK/YPG. The Wall Street Journal reported that Turkish military movements near Ein al-Arab, which include the deployment of special forces, strongly resemble preparations for past military operations in northern Syria. Additionally, local sources reported on December 16 that Türkiye had dismantled sections of the border wall near Ein al-Arab, further signalling a potential escalation.

These developments follow a statement by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on December 13, confirming that Türkiye’s long-term strategy remains focused on dismantling the PKK/YPG terrorist organization.

ISW analysts also note that, amid the increasing pressure on the PKK/YPG, defections from their ranks have been reported, weakening their position. With tensions continuing to rise, the SNA may push for a permanent ceasefire, aiming to create a "demilitarized zone in Kobani" under US supervision.

By Tamilla Hasanova