ISW experts assess Russian manpower losses in Ukraine

Russian forces may be suffering losses along the entire front in Ukraine at a rate close to the rate at which Russia is currently generating new forces. 

Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo stated on December 7 that Russian forces lost almost 11,000 personnel (presumably killed or rendered hors de combat by injury) in the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions in November 2023, RBC-Ukraine informs citing the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The operational tempo in the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions is currently lower than in the Avdiivka direction. These reported losses suggest that the Russian casualty rate in the Avdiivka area may be even higher given the higher operational tempo there.  

Russian forces are currently conducting mass infantry-led assaults to capture Avdiivka in an apparent effort to conserve armoured vehicles despite the risk of even greater manpower losses. Ukrainian officials have notably indicated that Russian defensive efforts are resulting in significant casualties as well. 

Russian and Ukrainian officials have reported that Russian crypto-mobilisation efforts produce roughly 20,000 to 40,000 personnel a month, a rate that could be lower than Russia’s current casualty rate in Ukraine.

Russian operations in Ukraine recently prompted the Russian military command to rush newly created and understrength formations to Ukraine to reinforce sectors of the front.

High Russian casualties will likely prevent Russian forces from fully replenishing and reconstituting existing units in Ukraine and forming new operational and strategic reserves if Russian force generation efforts continue at current rates while the Russian military continues operations.

Key Takeaways:

• The US Department of Defence (DoD) announced a new security assistance package and joint weapons production pledge to Ukraine against the backdrop of the International Forum for Defence Industries (DFNC1) in Washington, D.C. on December 6-7.
• The Russian Federation Council adopted a resolution confirming that the upcoming Russian presidential elections will occur on March 17, 2024, amid continued Kremlin efforts to legitimise the elections.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhya Oblast border area and marginally advanced near Avdiivka.
• Ukrainian partisans and residents in occupied territories continue to provide Ukrainian officials with targeting information.