ISW: Prigozhin admits failure of "Wagnerites" in Bakhmut, blames Russian MoD

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of Bakhmut.

Prigozhin accused the Russian Defence Ministry (MoD) of losing advantageous positions after MoD-subordinated units retreated from their positions on Bakhmut’s flanks necessary for an encirclement, Caliber.Az reports via the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Prigozhin and Wagner sources have long indicated Wagner’s intent to encircle Bakhmut and trap Ukrainian forces but proved unable to do so after the Ukrainian military command decided to defend the city.

ISW had previously assessed that Russian forces were unlikely to encircle Bakhmut after Wagner forces made several rapid breakthroughs north, south, and east of the city in winter-spring 2023.

Prigozhin likely anticipated that Ukrainian forces would entirely withdraw from Bakhmut out of fear of imminent encirclement and even offered to allow President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the city on March 3. The Ukrainian defensive operation, however, prioritised the defence of the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) west of Bakhmut, which forced Wagner forces into urban warfare and grinding directly through the city itself. Prigozhin’s admission further supports Ukrainian officials’ statements that Wagner is losing the initiative on the battlefield.

Prigozhin directly appealed to Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Army Gen Valery Gerasimov to hold Sakko i Vantsetti for at least a few more days, the report says.

According to ISW, Prigozhin also blamed Gerasimov for the retreats of Russian conventional forces from Bakhmut‘s flanks.

A prominent Wagner-affiliated milblogger stated on May 18 that Russian forces lack the organisation, fire support, coordination, and training necessary to defend the Bakhmut’s flanks.

“The milblogger complained that Russian forces allowed Ukrainian forces to ‘drive a BMP [infantry fighting vehicle] for 15 minutes’ into the Russian rear without destroying it, with the Ukrainian assault lasting only 16 minutes. The milblogger claimed that Russian forces would not be able to drive an infantry fighting vehicle into the Ukrainian rear without Ukrainian forces destroying it,” ISW writes.

The milblogger also claimed that Russian airborne forces attempted to occupy territory in the “grey zone” and Ukrainian forces immediately interdicted their efforts with artillery fire, making it impossible for Russian forces to move and gain a foothold in the targeted location. A non-Wagner-affiliated milblogger noted the lack of coordination between Wagner and conventional Russian forces and claimed that the Russian Defence Ministry needs ”competent command and control” to strengthen interactions between Russian forces and Wagner fighters for operations after Bakhmut, the report continued.

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18.
• Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized the battlefield initiative in the Bakhmut area.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of Bakhmut.
• Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated milbloggers are blaming Russian conventional forces for military failures in and around Bakhmut.
• Prigozhin’s efforts to blame the Russian military for failures around Bakhmut are causing some ultranationalists to accuse him of using the Battle for Bakhmut to satisfy his personal ambitions.
• Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike across Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18, targeting Kyiv for the ninth time since the beginning of May.
• The Kremlin continues to strengthen domestic repression measures likely to encourage self-censorship and prepare Russian society for a prolonged war.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may discuss the possible provision of Western fighter jets to Ukraine at the June Defence Ministers meeting.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Unknown actors, possibly Ukrainian partisans, attacked a Russian rail line in Crimea.
• The Russian Supreme Court ruled on May 18 that Russian military personnel who voluntarily surrender on the battlefield will be prosecuted under treason charges.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to announce patronage programs with Russian federal subjects to support infrastructure projects in Russian-controlled territories.