ISW: Russia conducting several simultaneous offensive operations in eastern Ukraine

Russian forces are likely trying to regain the theatre-level initiative in Ukraine by conducting several simultaneous offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, although it remains unclear if Russian forces will be able to fully regain the initiative as Ukrainian forces maintain pressure on critical areas of the front. 

Several Ukrainian officials noted that the situation along the frontline is complex but that Ukrainian forces maintain control of the battlespace, Caliber.Az reports citing the daily assessment of the Russian military campaign by the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated on November 13 during a conversation with US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown that the Avdiivka, Kupyansk, and Marinka directions are the most intense but noted that Ukrainian forces are continuing offensive actions in unspecified sectors of the front.

Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi emphasized that Russian forces are pursuing simultaneous offensive actions in several directions and trying particularly to regain the initiative north and south of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces are reporting an increase in Russian assaults in the Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk directions.

"Ukrainian officials’ statements about the current tempo of Russian operations along the frontline are consistent with ISW's assessment about ongoing Russian offensive operations, particularly in the Kupyansk, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions," the analysts say.

The ISW added that Russian forces will likely struggle to fully regain the initiative across the theatre, however, and Ukrainian forces are continuing their own offensive operations and making tactical-level gains along the front, particularly in western Zaporizhia Oblast and on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.

The Russian military command will likely have to decide whether to keep certain Russian elements on certain sectors of the front to defend against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations or to redeploy them to support offensive operations elsewhere that will likely culminate without reinforcements.

"These choices will likely hinder Russia's ability to fully regain the initiative in the coming weeks," ISW's analysts say.

Key takeaways:

• Ukrainian President's Office Head Andriy Yermak stated on November 13 that Ukrainian forces have established a "foothold" on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted another wave of missile, air, and drone strikes against Ukrainian rear areas on the night of November 13–14.
• Armenia continues to distance itself from Russia amid deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 14 and advanced in some areas.