ISW: Russia has no reserves to continue Bakhmut offensive

Russian forces remain unlikely to rapidly exploit a breakthrough beyond Bakhmut if Russian forces capture the city.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin implied on March 8 that the Russian Ministry of Defence used the Wagner Group to bear the brunt of high-intensity attritional urban warfare in Bakhmut and may discard the Wagner Group after capturing Bakhmut so conventional Russian units can continue to attack, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"ISW has not observed any indicators that the Russian military has a well-equipped and prepared reserve force to advance beyond Bakhmut. Most observed Russian units in Donbas are already engaged in offensive operations, including Russian airborne (VDV) elements that joined the Russian offensive in Bakhmut in January 2023," ISW analysts said.

ISW continues to assess that the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine will shortly culminate if Russian forces capture Bakhmut, as the Russian military does not have the combat power or reinforcements necessary to exploit a breakthrough near Bakhmut, the report added.

Key takeaways

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on March 8 that Russian forces captured all of eastern Bakhmut, a claim consistent with available visual evidence.

Russian forces remain unlikely to exploit a breakthrough beyond Bakhmut if Russian forces capture the city.

The Kremlin may be attempting to establish a new Russian government-controlled armed formation billed as a volunteer unit through the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom.

A US official denied that US intelligence assessed that a pro-Ukrainian group sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022.

German and Polish officials announced that Germany and Poland will deliver 28 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in March 2023, which will bolster Ukraine’s capabilities to conduct a counteroffensive amidst high Russian tank losses.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on March 8 but have not succeeded in completing a turning movement around the city.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces landed on the Dnipro River Delta islands for the third consecutive day.

The Kremlin is doubling down on reviving volunteer recruitment campaigns throughout Russia and occupied Ukraine.

Russian hospitals are continuing to form new medical centres in Russia in an effort to maximize the capacity for overfilling hospitals in occupied territories to treat wounded Russian servicemen.