ISW: Russia sending troops, equipment from Karabakh to Ukraine

The cost of the Russian war in Ukraine will likely continue to undermine Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical campaigns worldwide.

"ISW has long assessed that Russian forces have been moving equipment and personnel from other conflict zones such as Syria and Karabakh and may deprioritise other combat and soft-power engagements in favour of sustaining a protracted war in Ukraine," Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Putin is seemingly still unwilling to sacrifice his geopolitical initiatives in the short-term, however, and risks facing a financial predicament in which he will not be able to balance maximalist goals in Ukraine with his global power projection campaigns. Putin, for example, has continued attempts to reestablish Russia’s position in Central Asia by unsuccessfully proposing to create a trilateral union among Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan in late November and during a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on December 9.

Putin’s continued spending on regional soft-power initiatives has already upset a few prominent pro-war military bloggers, who had criticised the Kremlin for reportedly allocating almost six billion rubles (about $95.5 million) for the development of Russian-language schools in Tajikistan while failing to provide for Russian forces on the battlefield. The military bloggers added that the Kremlin is not effectively leveraging its soft power in Tajikistan, which further brings the necessity of such spending into question.

Key conclusions drawn by ISW analysts:

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defences against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives near the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and support limited offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast.

The cost of the Russian war in Ukraine will likely continue to undermine Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical campaigns worldwide.

The Russian Defence Ministry officially denied rumours that Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov has been or soon will be replaced, although it stopped short of offering the kind of credible support for this denial that it has provided that Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu is still on the job.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that Ukraine intends to continue counteroffensives in winter 2022–2023 after the hard freeze enables manoeuvre warfare, supporting an ISW assessment.

Senior US government officials may be correcting their assessments about Ukraine’s ability and intent to conduct counteroffensive operations this winter.

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna as Ukrainian forces struck rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka–Donetsk City areas and conducted defensive operations southwest of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets and logistics hubs along critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in southern Ukraine.

Russian forces are fortifying the northern beaches of Crimea along the Black Sea coast.

Russian forces may lack sufficient infrastructure to support their troops in Crimea.