ISW: Russia tries to downplay Ukraine gains

The Ukrainian military has succeeded in counter-offensive operations and liberated a number of settlements. At the same time, the Russian Federation is trying to downplay both the loss of control over them and the breakthrough of its own defence lines.

Such conclusions are voiced by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, Caliber.Az reports citing a new ISW report.

Ukrainian armed forces advanced in three front areas

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.

According to the deputy head of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, Hanna Malyar, the military are conducting offensive operations near Bakhmut.

Meanwhile, Russian sources reported that the Ukrainian armed forces continued ground attacks on the city's northern and southern flanks.

Liberation of populated areas

Geolocation footage and Russian sources indicated that the AFU had liberated several settlements in ongoing ground attacks to the south, southwest, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka in the western part of the Donetsk region.

Russian sources reported that AFU fighters continued their offensive southwest of Orekhove in the Zaporizhzhya region, and the Ukrainian military made gains in the area.

Ukrainian forces visually confirmed an offensive in the western part of the Donetsk region and part of the Zaporizhzhya region, which Russian sources also confirmed, but tried to downplay this.

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had advanced 300 to 1,500 metres in the country's south. She and other Ukrainian and Russian sources said that between  June 10 and 11, the Defence Forces made gains south of Velyka Novosilka, including the liberation of Makarovka, Neskuchne, Blagodatne, Storozhevo, and Novodaryevka.

What Russian propagandists have come up with for "excuses"

Some Russian sources reported that fighting continued in the "grey zone" or contested areas, or that the AFU was operating in the regions that Russian forces had "not fully occupied" before the Ukrainian attacks in the southern regions.

Russian sources are likely to call the territorial advance of the AFU through the Russian defence a capture of "grey zones" in order to downplay Ukraine's successes and omit the Ukrainian troops' breakthrough of the occupier's defensive lines, the analysts said in their report.

The ISW also noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had liberated several settlements, but "it is still premature to talk about a Ukrainian 'breakthrough'".

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.
• Ukrainian forces made visually verified advances in western Donetsk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast, which Russian sources confirmed but sought to downplay.
• Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Russian forces are transferring their most combat-capable units from the Kherson direction to the Bakhmut and Zaporizhia directions.
• Russian forces conducted a limited series of drone strikes targeting eastern Ukrainian border areas overnight on June 10 to 11.
• Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin characterized the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) plan to formalize volunteer formations by July 1 as an attack on him and his forces.
• Russia and Ukraine conducted a near one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange.
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces made gains near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of June 10.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that rain along the Zaporizhia Oblast front may slow Ukrainian operations in the coming days.
• The Republic of Chechnya reportedly formed two new regiments – Akhmat-Russia and Akhmat-Chechnya – equipped with commercially-available Chinese armored equipment.
• Saboteurs, reportedly including Ukrainian partisans, conducted two discrete improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against railways in occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea.