ISW: Russian flotilla holds position off Syrian coast as military strategy remains uncertain Satellite Imagery Reveals

Recent satellite imagery from December 10 shows that Russian ships have not yet returned to Syria's Port of Tartus, with the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla maintaining a holding pattern approximately 8 to 15 kilometres away from the port.

Thus, Russia's military posture around Syria continues to demonstrate the Kremlin's cautious and uncertain approach in response to the potential collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime, Caliber.Az reports per ISW.

Among the vessels stationed in this area are the Admiral Golovko Gorshkov-class frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, and the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler.

Further satellite imagery from December 9 confirmed that the Admiral Grigorovich, Novorossiysk, and Vyazma were still positioned in the same holding pattern as of December 10. Meanwhile, analysts observed that the Baltic Fleet's Alexander Shabalin, a Project 775 large landing ship, left the Baltic Sea on December 10, potentially indicating preparations to transport Russian military assets from Tartus to the Mediterranean, possibly to Tobruk, Libya.

A Russian military blogger noted that the status of key military bases, such as Hmeimim Air Base and Tartus, remains unclear as of December 9. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added that it is difficult to predict what will happen next in Syria, although Russia intends to maintain dialogue with nations sharing similar interests.

Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 10 that Russian forces are actively disassembling equipment and withdrawing personnel from Hmeimim Air Base, utilizing An-124 and Il-76 transport aircraft. Additionally, Russian Spetsnaz forces are overseeing the dismantling of equipment at Tartus. Satellite imagery from Maxar confirmed that Russian aircraft, helicopters, and military assets remain stationed at Hmeimim, indicating that while withdrawals are ongoing, key Russian military resources are still in place.

The lack of a clear Russian response, both in terms of military posture and official statements, reflects the Kremlin’s hesitation in formulating a decisive course of action in Syria. It is likely that Russia is waiting to observe developments on the ground before making further decisions, potentially maintaining its military presence until it can secure relationships with Syrian opposition forces or a transitional government.

By Aghakazim Guliyev