ISW: Russian troops abandon attacks on Bakhmut, expecting Ukrainian counterattack

Russian Defence Ministry (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, putting the Wagner Group and Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in a potentially difficult position.

Prigozhin released a series of videos on May 4 and 5 announcing that Wagner will withdraw from Bakhmut on May 10 unless Wagner receives necessary supplies and launched particularly acerbic and emotional attacks against Chief of the Russian General Staff Army Gen Valery Gerasimov, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, and the Russian Defense Ministry establishment writ large, Caliber.Az reports, citing a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Prigozhin’s palpable desperation in the videos, one of which shows the corpses of recently deceased Wagner fighters, marks a significant rhetorical inflection in his continued pleas for increased Russian MoD support for Wagner in Bakhmut. His visible and visceral anger suggests that the Russian MoD has likely deprioritized Bakhmut and shifted operational focus elsewhere in the theatre in ways that may seriously compromise Wagner’s ability to operate effectively. Wagner has not ceased efforts to completely capture Bakhmut despite reduced access to ammunition and other necessary supplies, however. Prigozhin has shown no willingness to switch to the defensive within the city,” ISW says.

Key Takeaways

Russian Defence Ministry appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, putting the Wagner Group and Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in a potentially difficult position.

Wagner’s continued persistence within Bakhmut is incongruent with the overall slow-down in the pace of Russian operations elsewhere in Ukraine as conventional Russian forces appear to largely be shifting focus to prepare to receive the much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Recently dismissed former Deputy Defenсe Minister for Logistics Col Gen Mikhail Mizintsev is reportedly serving as deputy commander of the Wagner Group, likely as part of Wagner’s campaign to retain access to Russian military supplies.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered newly-appointed Deputy Logistics Minister Alexei Kuzmenkov to control the supply of weapons and equipment to Russian forces in Ukraine.

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Russian Internal Ministry proposed a draft bill aimed at appealing to growing anti-migrant sentiments in Russia and supporting the Russian military’s efforts to recruit migrants.

Russian Human Rights Council head Valery Fadeev reportedly stated that Russian authorities should regulate Telegram channels similarly to how Russia censors state-controlled media.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Kreminna and Avdiivka and made marginal gains within Bakhmut.

Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Bakhmut.

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed it prevented a Ukrainian assassination attempt against an occupation deputy of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on May 5.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues his own personal force generation efforts aimed at securing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favor.

Russian occupation authorities continue measures to strengthen social control of controlled territories.