ISW: Top general's dissmisal confirms that Russian defence in Ukraine likely brittle

The Russian Defence Ministry's decision to dismiss the commander of the 58th Army in the Zaporizhzhia direction, General Ivan Popov, after complaints about the lack of support at the front and heavy losses supports the confirmation of the weakness of the Russian troops' defence against the background of the AFU counter-offensive.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made the conclusion in its daily assessment of Russia's military campaign, Caliber.Az reports.

ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces lack the reserves to rotate frontline units and that without operational reserves Russian forces would have to fall back to prepared defensive positions without significant support in the case of a Ukrainian breakthrough.

Popov’s complaint about Russian casualties from artillery fire likely indicates that Russian forces need rotations and reinforcements to sustain their defenses in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Russia’s lack of reserves likely made it impossible for Gerasimov to seriously consider Popov’s appeal, and Popov’s dismissal has further illustrated that Russian forces are unable to conduct force rotations, ISW's analysts say.

The apparent theater-wide lack of force rotations suggests that Russian forces would have to rely on existing and already degraded forces in the event of any Ukrainian breakthrough.

"Popov’s complaints about Russian forces’ poor counterbattery capabilities and significant Russian casualties from Ukrainian artillery fire are likely a result of what ISW assesses to be a Ukrainian effort to attrit Russian forces defending in southern Ukraine," the report says.

Key Takeaways:

• Former Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Major General Ivan Popov claimed in a leaked audio that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed him for expressing persistent grievances about problems on the western Zaporizhzhia Oblast frontline to senior commanders.
• Popov likely attempted to appeal to the Kremlin to partially or fully strip Gerasimov of command over operations in Ukraine.
• Gerasimov may have tried to shield Putin from unwanted criticism to uphold Putin’s ignorance by firing Popov before he could appeal directly to the Kremlin.
• Popov’s attempt to directly appeal to Putin for support and his insubordination of Gerasimov’s command is indicative of a pattern of corrosive behavior that has developed within the Russian command and the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
• Russian milbloggers expressed varied reactions to Popov’s dismissal, though none disagreed with Popov’s complaints about problems Russian forces experience on the front.
• Disruptions to the Russian command overseeing Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine will likely have some immediate but marginal impacts on Russian forces.
• Popov’s dismissal over the issue of Russian casualties and reported complaints about lack of force rotations further supports ISW’s assessment that Russian defenses in Ukraine are likely brittle
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the frontline on July 13 and made gains in some areas.
• The Kremlin reportedly ordered the detention and suspension of several senior military officers following the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion on June 24, supporting ISW’s prior assessment that the Kremlin likely intends to purge the MoD of figures viewed as disloyal.
• Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed drone strikes across Ukraine on July 13.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources engaged in positional battles near Kreminna.
• Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks and reportedly advanced around Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces reported conducting limited offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast and continued counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts border area.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and made some gains in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast as of July 13.
• Russia may not be fulfilling some of its commitments to Iran in their bilateral security partnership, even as the Russian military continues to rely heavily on Iranian-made drones in Ukraine.
• The Associated Press (AP) reported on July 13 that Russian forces and occupation administrations are conducting a wide scale campaign to detain and abuse civilians and are planning to build additional internment infrastructure in the occupied territories.