ISW: Ukraine forces liberate more than half of Russia-occupied lands

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN on July 23 that Ukrainian forces have liberated approximately 50 per cent of the territory that Russian forces captured since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

This figure is largely consistent with ISW’s current assessment of control of terrain, Caliber.Az reports citing the US-based think tank's latest assessment.

Analysts can employ several methods to calculate control of terrain with varying results depending on the cartographical projection used and other factors. An estimate using ISW’s control of terrain data and the Mercator projection indicates that Ukrainian forces liberated about 53 per cent of the land that Russian forces captured since February 2022.

Estimates made using different data sources, measurement methods, or projections will generate different numbers.

Factors, such as higher confidence about unconfirmed Russian claimed territorial gains, can impact such estimations as well. ISW appreciates and closely studies government officials’ statements about control of terrain geometry to cross-reference, confirm, and where necessary correct assessments.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front line and advanced on July 23.

Geolocated footage published on July 22 shows that Ukrainian forces made some advances in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka), and some Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also advanced near Pryyutne (14km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).

Geolocated footage published on July 22 also shows that Ukrainian forces made marginal advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Kamianske, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted additional ground attacks south of Orikhiv near Robotyne (12km south).

The Ukrainian General Staff reported continued Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in both areas of the front.

Some Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued attacking on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks and reportedly made advances near Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut).