Japan eyes fighter jet exports, the plans exclude states as Ukraine

Japan, a nation renowned for its strict arms embargo policies, is on the brink of making a significant shift in its strategy. Insider reports from this eastern island nation suggest that an agreement is likely to be reached this month between the major Liberal Democratic Party and their coalition partner Komeito. If reached, this agreement could permit the third-country exportation of their next-generation fighter jets.

A joint venture between the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan, the Global Combat Air Program [GCAP], plays a vital role. BulgarianMilitary.com reminds us, that while the project has its roots in the UK, Japan was the last to join this collaborative endeavor, Bulgarian Military reports.

The deliberation within Japan concerning the allowance of third-country exports is largely driven by economic factors. To reduce supply costs, the UK and Italy are encouraging Japan to consider exporting their planes to third-party countries. Japan’s Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, has voiced his concern over the absence of an export mechanism to third-party countries, a situation he believes is hindering the country’s attempts to adjust prices. The lack of such mechanisms makes it difficult for Japan to realize the production of the fighter jet it has been working towards.

There are limitations

Insights from Japanese channels confirm that Japan, Great Britain, and Italy have reached a consensus on a critical issue of our time – war engagements. The mutual agreement decrees that none of these nations have the privilege to ship these fighter planes to countries embroiled in conflict situations.

A case in point is Ukraine. Should these fighters be ready and mass-produced today, Ukraine’s application to operate one would be void. The ongoing war with Russia means Ukraine would not have operational status. Even if the conflict were to end, it would take years to determine whether to approve Ukraine as an operator. However, this is purely hypothetical reasoning. To be realistic, Ukraine is not a feasible operator for the yet-to-be-realized next-generation fighter.

A theoretical situation also involves Israel. Despite having the F-35 and the backing of Britain and America in their battle against Hamas, Israel is ineligible for negotiation while conflict persists. These hypothetical situations and contingencies shed light on Tokyo’s intent to set clear parameters. They want us to understand that the aircraft’s distribution is not determined by politicking, but by the peaceful diplomacy practiced presently and in the future by the prospective operator.

During his speech, Japan’s premier highlighted the predicament the nation would face if there were to be a ban on exporting advanced fighter jets to three nations. According to Kishida, such an export prohibition might undermine Japan’s participation in collaborative projects with the US. He suggested that if exports from third-world countries became untenable, the international community might consider Japan incapable of collaborative development and production on a global level.

However, Kishida believes the implications extend well beyond mere economic, industrial, or financial impacts. He emphasized that a denial of exports could compromise Japan’s defense system. The logic is, that Japan would confront considerable challenges in maintaining its current operational equipment, given the nation’s high demand for superior military hardware.

Speaking on Tuesday, Kishida disclosed his plans to continue discussions to recalibrate the existing five categories of permissible defense equipment exports according to the operational guidelines of the Three Principles for Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology.

Komeito’s voice

Recognizing the potential of exporting next-generation fighter jets necessitates obtaining the endorsement of Japan’s ruling parties, particularly the Liberal Democratic Party and their coalition partner, Komeito. Despite being in a coalition with the rulers, Komeito called for detailed discussions and clarifications from Kishida.

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida put forth a compelling case, outlining both the risks and merits of enabling these exports. Due to his persuasive discourse, it appears Komeito is likely to back the minister, casting a vote in favor.

Initially, Komeito showed reservations about exporting to third-party countries. However, Prime Minister Kishida’s effective explanation regarding the need for such exports persuaded them. Party leader Natsuo Yamaguchi, accompanied by other Komeito executives, appreciated Kishida’s elucidation, shifting the party toward approving exports to third-party countries, albeit with certain restrictions.

The government, in alliance with the LDP, is determined to secure Komeito’s support by allowing exports to third countries, but solely those of next-generation fighter jets, and by definitively prohibiting supplies to conflict-involved countries. To flesh out the specifics, including the required export controls for third parties, the LDP and Komeito plan to convene a meeting among their political research council chiefs shortly.

GCAP

The Global Combat Air Program [GCAP] is an initiative aimed at developing next-generation air superiority platforms. These platforms are designed to be highly adaptable, and capable of fulfilling multiple roles in various combat scenarios. The program focuses on integrating advanced technologies to enhance the capabilities of future air combat systems.

The expected characteristics of the GCAP platforms include stealth technology, advanced avionics, and high-speed performance. The operational range of GCAP platforms is expected to significantly surpass that of current air superiority fighters. This is primarily due to the integration of advanced propulsion systems and fuel-efficient technologies.

The engine powering the GCAP platforms is anticipated to be a next-generation propulsion system, offering a high thrust-to-weight ratio and exceptional fuel efficiency. It is likely to feature advanced materials and design techniques to reduce its heat signature, further enhancing the stealth capabilities of these platforms. The armament of the GCAP platforms will comprise a mix of air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons. These are likely to be integrated internally to maintain the stealth profile of the platforms.