Japan grapples with uncertainty over Trump's shifting strategy

Japan faces a broader dilemma in interpreting the Trump administration’s strategy.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s recent visit to Japan was marked by routine discussions, with no major surprises, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

During his visit, Hegseth attended a joint memorial service on Iwo Jima and met with Gen. Nakatani, Japan’s defense counterpart. In his remarks, Hegseth emphasised the significance of the US-Japan alliance for maintaining a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” stressing Japan’s role as an “indispensable partner” in deterring Chinese military aggression.

He also reiterated the US commitment to upgrading forces in Japan for improved coordination with Japan's Self-Defense Forces. While Hegseth’s statements were firm, there were no overt demands for Japan to increase its defense spending or host-nation support. The rhetoric, including references to “lethality” and “war-fighting,” had sharper tones than usual but largely aligned with the status quo. At its core, the visit served to reassure Tokyo that US security alliances in Asia remain intact. 

However, Japan may still have cause for concern. Despite US pledges, Japan remains wary of being abandoned, a fear exacerbated by shifting regional dynamics, including growing nuclear threats from China and North Korea. This concern has led Japan to seek greater reassurance on extended deterrence from the US. While some view Trump's focus on "strategic competition" with China as part of a "pivot to Asia," others remain uncertain about how the administration will handle diplomacy with China and North Korea. 

Moreover, the Trump administration’s actions—such as withdrawing from international organisations and creating trade barriers—further complicate Japan’s position. Japan may soon face a tough choice: accept an “America First” approach that undermines global norms or invest more heavily in its own security and form alliances with nations committed to a rules-based order. The path forward remains uncertain, and Japan must be prepared for any shifts in US policy.

By Naila Huseynova