Karabakh issue is closed for Armenia, Belarusian pundit says Caliber.Az talks to Yury Shevtsov

Belarusian expert Yury Shevtsov has shared with Caliber.Az his views on Armenia's ambivalent policy and its possible outcomes for the country's future.

- In your opinion, why is the EU mission in Armenia being expanded?

- Armenia, seeing that Russia is preoccupied with the crisis in Ukraine, is looking for a point of support in the West. On the other hand, there are people in power in Armenia who have failed to consolidate the country and its diaspora abroad. I think that Yerevan has always been determined to pivot towards the West, and now they are trying to put this idea into practice.

But what will come of it? I think nothing significant. The European Union itself is going through a difficult internal crisis, its interests are embroiled in two wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Broadly speaking, the EU is not interested in the South Caucasus, there are other actors. So my view is that the EU will have some resources for this mission in Armenia, and there will be people who will take advantage of those resources. For the most part, that's it.

- As you know, lately Armenia has been ignoring CSTO events more and more. Will it leave this organisation or will it continue to blackmail Moscow?

- This is a difficult question. Although Armenia is imitating the withdrawal from the CSTO, I somehow think that this scenario is not very likely. I think it is more of a gesture towards the West, nothing more. Let's say Armenia leaves the CSTO, what then? They will not be under the EU's military umbrella, let alone NATO's. The CSTO, despite all its shortcomings and disadvantages, is still a military bloc. It has many lines of cooperation. I believe that the Armenians are not going to find a substitute for the CSTO. Therefore, from a rational point of view, Armenia does not need to leave the CSTO.

I think that those who govern Armenia aggravate the already difficult situation in the country. They should defend the instruments of an independent state, but they do not. They have almost missed the time when Armenia had a very positive image in Russia, which is a very big factor. The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, for instance, has taken a different path in an equally difficult region. He built a strong institution of an independent state and at a critical moment, when a big war broke out nearby, it worked. Tactical weapons were brought from Russia to the territory of Belarus, which threw cold water on those who wanted the war to spill over from Ukraine to the territory of Belarus. The Armenians went in the opposite direction, relying on France and the United States, and this caused many problems for the Armenians. They lost the war, and the Diaspora gave no support during the last battle in Karabakh. As a result of this policy, Armenia's course towards the West has been a failure for Armenians.

- What will happen to the Russian military base in Gyumri?

- This base will probably have to be withdrawn if Armenia leaves the CSTO. It has no special significance there now.

- Who will then provide a "security guarantee" for Armenia?

- In that case, all hope lies with the Armenian people. The Armenians have allowed themselves the luxury of internal disorder, and as a result of being tossed between Russia and the West, they have found themselves in a broken trough. Now Pashinyan is trying to somehow boost Armenia's economy on the transit to Russia, I mean the export of sub-sanctioned goods, which is a paradox. That is, on the one hand, Yerevan is declaring its rejection of Eurasian structures, but at the same time it is boosting the economy through the transit of sub-sanctioned goods to Russia in huge quantities. This policy is unlikely to end well for Armenia.

- In effect, Armenia is acting as a conduit for French interests in the South Caucasus. Does Paris have any chance of forcing its way into our region?

- Paris has no chance of forcing its way into the Caucasus. And for Armenia itself, France can only provide support in the form of settling a few migrant workers, nothing more.

- But France is increasingly arming Armenia...

- When it comes to arms supplies from developed countries, in this case from France to Armenia, various forms of borrowing from the territory of these same countries are often used, up to the most bizarre forms of subsidising such exports.

- It is clear that France's military supplies to Armenia are behind its own goals in our region. And what are the interests of India, which is gradually turning into a permanent arms supplier to Armenia?

- In anything but geopolitics. India has never shown any significant interest in the South Caucasus. It has interests in the Indian Ocean region, Afghanistan, in Central Asia, but not in the South Caucasus. India may be trying to sell some consignment of arms Indian businessmen have managed to somehow get into the Armenian budget.

- How do you see further processes in the South Caucasus?

- It depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If Russia continues to have obvious successes, as we see today, then, most likely, it will have time and strength to pay attention to Armenia. Then those circles in Yerevan, busy with this huge by Armenian standards sub-sanctioned exports from the West to Russia, will manifest themselves politically. It should not be discounted that in addition to the strong pro-Western bias, there are also pro-Russian forces in Armenia, which have not disappeared. But in any case, the Karabakh issue is closed, the North-South corridor is developing, it is logical that the Zangezur corridor should also work, and then Türkiye will be involved in the North-South project. All of this together represents a complex restructuring of international relations in the South Caucasus in line with the development of the SCO.

We are talking about a major economic alliance, within the framework of which the entire geopolitics of the Greater Middle East is being reshaped. Iran is getting closer to Saudi Arabia, and Moscow, Tehran and Beijing are beefing up their cooperation with each other.

- What is your opinion on a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan?

- Armenians say they are ready for peace with Azerbaijan. So let's hope that a peace agreement is not far off.