Macron pushes for Palestinian statehood amid fading diplomatic support Gamble ahead of UN-backed New York conference

French President Emmanuel Macron is preparing to use a high-profile international conference in New York, co-hosted with Saudi Arabia this June, to push for formal recognition of a Palestinian state and mobilize global support for the Arab League’s Gaza reconstruction plan. While Macron has framed the move as both morally imperative and diplomatically strategic, signs suggest his ambitious initiative is unlikely to succeed.

Macron announced his intention to recognize Palestine during a televised interview given on April 9, saying the move should happen "in the coming months" and hinting that it could coincide with the June conference. As the French RFI quoted his statement, he emphasized the need for a “collective dynamic” where recognition of Palestine goes hand-in-hand with affirming Israel’s right to exist—positioning France as a mediator committed to both regional stability and combating extremism.

However, the diplomatic landscape offers little indication that Macron's vision will gain sufficient traction. The upcoming New York conference in June marks a significant shift in diplomatic efforts, aiming to go beyond symbolic recognitions by setting tangible goals and actionable plans, including potential sanctions for those who hinder progress. According to the Israel Hayom publication, the organizers emphasized that "the conference is intended to serve as a point of no return, paving the way for ending the occupation and promoting a permanent settlement based on the two-state solution" in their invitation to UN member states. Unlike prior diplomatic efforts that hinged on Israeli-Palestinian dialogue, this initiative breaks from tradition by bypassing both parties’ direct engagement. Yet its exclusion of Israel as a necessary participant, and its lack of required Palestinian commitments, undermines the feasibility of delivering lasting peace.

Macron’s broader hope is to catalyze momentum within the West, particularly among G7 nations such as the UK and Canada, to coordinate recognition of Palestine. Yet, as the article highlights, no such commitments have materialized. Even France’s expectation that Saudi Arabia might move toward normalization with Israel has waned in the face of Israel’s continued military operations in Gaza. French officials now acknowledge that, at best, they may only secure symbolic gestures from regional powers.

Experts and insiders are increasingly skeptical of Macron’s ability to turn diplomatic intent into meaningful outcomes. Laure Foucher, senior fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, acknowledged France’s effort to invest political capital in the crisis but criticized Macron’s approach as detached from reality.

“[...] Macron is so focused on achieving a diplomatic coup that he is basing his initiative on several wrong assessments, ignoring the reality on the ground”, she warned, as cited by The National News.

The conference itself is rooted in a UN General Assembly resolution from September that endorsed a July opinion by the International Court of Justice, declaring the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories illegal. While this provides a legal basis for the summit, it does not ensure geopolitical leverage—especially in a world where major powers remain divided and cautious on the matter.

Macron’s approach may also overestimate the UN’s capacity to enforce binding agreements. While the Israeli article notes that the conference plans to issue a final document with firm timelines and obligations, there is little indication that such a framework will be respected or implemented in practice. The lack of consensus among key actors, especially within the West, further weakens the likelihood of meaningful follow-through.

Despite the uphill battle, Macron retains support from some advisors. Ofer Bronchtein, a Franco-Israeli peace activist and presidential advisor, remains hopeful that progress could be made—if certain conditions are met, such as a ceasefire in Gaza, unimpeded humanitarian access, and the release of Israeli hostages. However, with none of these elements in place, his optimism remains theoretical.

Former French ambassador to the UN Michel Duclos noted that France’s role in this crisis is as much about geopolitics as peace building. Writing for the Institute Montaigne, he observed that France is striving to act as a bridge between the Global North and South. This could be nothing more than a lofty ambition, complicated by Macron’s lack of concrete support and growing international skepticism.

By Nazrin Sadigova