Media: Italy’s government at risk as divisions over Ukraine, EU defence plans deepen

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is facing mounting pressure to keep her right-wing coalition intact, as political rifts over Italy's stance on Ukraine and EU rearmament threaten to destabilise her government.

While Meloni has maintained surprising unity within her coalition since taking office, divisions over foreign policy and military spending are now straining her leadership, with some members pushing for a more assertive approach and others seeking to avoid further military involvement in Ukraine, Caliber.Az reports per Politico.

At the heart of the issue is Italy’s position on the European Union’s rearmament plans, which are intertwined with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While Meloni has shown strong support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and security, her government is deeply divided over how far Italy should go in supporting EU efforts to rearm the continent and take on more responsibility for its own defence.

Meloni’s approach has been notably cautious. As a staunch transatlanticist, she has been reluctant to endorse the idea of Europe reducing its reliance on the United States for military support, especially when it comes to Ukraine. While France and Germany advocate for a European defence strategy independent of the U.S., Meloni fears the potential economic and strategic risks, particularly for Italy’s heavily indebted economy.

Her scepticism about European rearmament plans, which include €150 billion in loans and an additional €650 billion in fiscal flexibility, reflects concerns over Italy’s limited military capacity and its vulnerability in the face of Russia’s military might without U.S. support.

At the same time, Meloni faces significant pressure from within her own coalition. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League party, is pushing for a more isolationist stance, capitalising on widespread public opposition to Italy’s deeper involvement in Ukraine. Polls indicate that only 6% of Italians support a major peacekeeping role in Ukraine, making Salvini’s position politically popular with the electorate.

Salvini, who has expressed admiration for both former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, is also wary of the EU’s rearmament agenda, which he perceives as potentially burdensome for Italy’s strained finances.

The discord within Meloni’s coalition is exemplified by clashes between Salvini and Forza Italia, the centre-right party of Meloni’s other deputy, Antonio Tajani, who has been more supportive of European military integration. Salvini has ridiculed the idea of a European army, even dismissing French President Emmanuel Macron as unfit to lead such an initiative. The growing tension between the two factions has forced Meloni to adopt a more cautious and ambiguous tone on Ukraine, toning down her earlier rhetoric that suggested Ukraine could achieve victory in the war against Russia.

Amidst these internal divisions, Meloni’s government is at risk of splintering, as Salvini’s political manoeuvring threatens to overshadow Meloni’s leadership. The far-right leader is positioning himself to regain political ground, using his opposition to European military integration and his efforts to align with Trump as a way to appeal to Italy’s populist voters. This shift could undermine Meloni’s ability to balance the interests of her coalition partners and retain stability within her government.

With Salvini increasingly challenging Meloni’s position, there is growing speculation that the prime minister may look to pro-European alternatives, such as centrist politician Carlo Calenda, in an effort to secure her political future. However, any shift towards Calenda could further alienate Salvini and exacerbate the tensions within the coalition.

The political instability within Italy’s government reflects broader uncertainties surrounding Europe’s role in the Ukraine conflict and its security policy. As Meloni struggles to navigate these competing pressures, the risk of a coalition collapse remains ever-present, particularly if the government is forced to take a definitive stance on sending troops to Ukraine.

For now, Meloni’s strategy seems to be one of delay, attempting to balance the demands of both her European allies and her domestic political base. However, with Trump’s shadow looming large and Europe’s security plans in flux, the cracks within her coalition are beginning to show.

By Aghakazim Guliyev