Media: Ruble emerges as top performer amid shifts in US-Russia relations

Russia’s ruble has emerged as the best-performing currency in emerging markets, appreciating 13 per cent against the dollar since the beginning of the year.

This surge follows a dramatic shift in US policy toward Russia, particularly in the early stages of Donald Trump’s administration. As of February 21, the central bank set the ruble’s official exchange rate at 88.51 to the dollar, its strongest value since August, according to data from the Bank of Russia, Caliber.Az reports citing foreign media.

The ruble’s impressive gains are attributed to positive market expectations surrounding the evolving relationship between Russia and the United States.

“The successful start of negotiations between Russia and the US, as well as strong comments from Trump, allow the market to keep positive expectations,” said Denis Popov, an analyst at Promsvyazbank PJSC. Popov also indicated that there is a possibility the ruble could continue to strengthen in the short or medium term, depending on the progress of talks.

Earlier, on February 18, high-ranking officials from both nations met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for discussions aimed at ending the war in Ukraine and exploring opportunities for broader cooperation. This dialogue signals Trump's ambition to rebuild the strained relationship between the two countries.

The US president further fueled expectations on February 19, intensifying pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump stated that Zelenskyy “better move fast” to strike a deal with Russia “or he is not going to have a country left.”

However, despite the optimism surrounding the ruble’s surge, some analysts caution that the gains may be premature. According to Bloomberg Economics, the ruble’s strength may not be sustainable without a significant breakthrough in the ongoing Ukraine peace talks.

“If the geopolitical situation ultimately doesn’t change, then, according to our estimates, a fair exchange-rate level at current oil prices will remain above 100 to the dollar,” said Oleg Kuzmin, head of research at Renaissance Capital. This highlights the uncertainty surrounding the ruble’s future performance, as geopolitical factors continue to weigh heavily on Russia's economy.

By Vafa Guliyeva