Media: Washington assesses Tehran’s reaction if Trump declares war victory

U.S. intelligence agencies are assessing how Iran would respond if President Donald Trump declared a unilateral victory in the two-month war, according to U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter, as the administration weighs scaling back a conflict with rising political costs ahead of the midterms.

The analysis, requested by senior administration officials, is intended to gauge the implications of a possible U.S. pullback, according to Reuters.

While no decision has been made, officials say Trump could still escalate military operations, even as some advisers consider de-escalation to ease domestic political pressure.

However, intelligence assessments warn that a rapid drawdown could allow Iran to rebuild its nuclear and missile capabilities, potentially increasing long-term risks to U.S. allies in the region.

The intelligence community has previously examined Tehran’s likely reactions to different U.S. claims of victory. One assessment following early February strikes suggested Iran would view a U.S. withdrawal after a victory declaration as a strategic win.

If the U.S. maintained a heavy military presence while declaring success, Iran would likely see it as a negotiating tactic rather than an end to the conflict.

"CIA is not familiar with the intelligence community's reported assessment," Liz Lyons, director of the agency's office of public affairs, said in a statement after the publication of this story. The CIA declined further comment.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence also declined to comment.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, "The president will only enter into an agreement that puts U.S. national security first, and he has been clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon."

She also said the administration would "not be rushed into making a bad deal."

Officials say Trump is increasingly aware of the domestic political costs of the war, with polling showing limited public support. A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey found only 26% of respondents believed the war was worth the costs, while 25% said it made the U.S. safer.

Diplomatic efforts have so far failed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route disrupted by Iranian action, contributing to higher energy prices worldwide.

“The president will only enter into an agreement that puts U.S. national security first,” Kelly said.

Trump recently cancelled a planned trip by special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner to meet Iranian officials in Pakistan, saying it would take "too much time" and that Iran could simply initiate contact.

One White House official described domestic pressure to end the war as "enormous."

Military options remain on the table, including renewed airstrikes, though officials say a ground invasion now appears less likely than earlier in the conflict. One source said Iran has used the ceasefire to reposition military assets, raising the potential cost of renewed large-scale operations.

With diplomacy stalled, both sides remain far from any agreement.

By Aghakazim Guliyev