North Korean forces in Russia's Kursk could be decimated by April 2025, ISW warns

North Korea’s losses in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict are becoming increasingly dire, with the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimating that the entire 12,000-strong North Korean force currently stationed in Russia’s Kursk region could be wiped out by mid-April 2025.

The ISW report, referenced by Caliber.Az, highlights that as of early January, over 3,800 North Korean soldiers have already been killed or wounded in combat, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Initial reports from Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov in November 2024 had suggested only minor skirmishes involving North Korean forces, but by early December, Russian military bloggers began reporting that North Korean troops were engaged in far more significant battles.

With daily casualty rates of approximately 92 soldiers since the onset of more intense fighting in December, the ISW predicts that at the current pace, North Korea could lose its entire contingent within about 12 weeks. This grim forecast assumes that casualties will continue at their current high rate and that many of the wounded will not return to action.

The report also notes that North Korean forces are likely to face a higher wounded-to-death ratio, a common feature in protracted conflicts.

The question of whether or when wounded soldiers will be able to rejoin the fight remains unclear, adding further uncertainty to the already bleak situation for Pyongyang’s military presence in Kursk.

By Tamilla Hasanova