NYT: Hamas shows signs of willingness to negotiate with Israel

Hamas has long sought to escalate the conflict in the Middle East, believing that a broader war would bring victory in its ongoing battle with Israel. 

However, recent developments have left the group's strategy in disarray, particularly after a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah weakened Hamas's position. 

According to US officials who spoke to the New York Times, the agreement potentially removes Hamas's most important ally from the conflict, per Caliber.Az.

This ceasefire marks a significant step for the Biden administration, which has been focused on preventing a wider war and increasing pressure on Hamas to negotiate with Israel and release hostages in Gaza. Even before the ceasefire was announced on November 21, US and Palestinian officials noted that Hamas’s political leadership seemed ready to shift tactics and move away from the aggressive strategy spearheaded by Yahya Sinwar, the group’s former leader killed by Israeli forces last month.

Sinwar’s plan, formulated after Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, had aimed to provoke a full-scale war involving Hezbollah and Iran. As long as this strategy had any potential for success, Sinwar blocked any peace talks. However, with Hezbollah’s leadership decimated by Israeli attacks and the ceasefire agreement in place, Hamas is now increasingly isolated.

“Hamas is all alone now,” said Tamer Qarmout, a professor of public policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. “Its position has been seriously weakened.”

Iran, a key supporter of both Hamas and Hezbollah, appears hesitant to escalate the situation further. Israeli strikes in October crippled Iran’s air defence systems, and with the US presidential election in November bringing President-elect Donald Trump to power, Iranian retaliation has been delayed.

Hamas now finds itself at a crossroads over a year after the deadly October 7 assault, which resulted in 1,200 Israeli deaths and the kidnapping of over 250 people. Israel's subsequent military operations in Gaza have killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and caused widespread destruction. Although Hamas has lost many of its commanders and fighters, and some Palestinians hold the group responsible for provoking the Gaza offensive, Hamas has not been eradicated and still holds significant influence in Gaza.

Despite its weakened position, a ceasefire in Gaza may still be elusive. Before the Lebanon ceasefire, US and Palestinian officials indicated that Hamas's political council seemed willing to negotiate, provided Israel made certain compromises, particularly concerning the withdrawal of occupying forces from Gaza. However, Israel appears unwilling to make such concessions. Israeli officials, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, seem to be waiting for Trump’s inauguration before considering talks with Hamas.

Israel remains doubtful of Western and Arab plans for Gaza's post-war governance. Netanyahu, according to Western officials, believes any effort to bring the Palestinian Authority into Gaza would fail, allowing Hamas to reclaim control. US officials also think Hamas aims to maintain power after any ceasefire deal.

Hamas, which has long believed that Israel demands its unconditional surrender, has shown signs of willingness to consider concessions under certain conditions. One proposal under discussion among some Hamas leaders would allow Israel a temporary presence in the border region between Gaza and Egypt, known as the Philadelphi Corridor. However, Hamas has publicly rejected any long-term Israeli control over the area.

Intelligence from several Middle Eastern countries, including Israel, suggests that Hamas may be more willing to make concessions than it was previously. Despite this, internal divisions persist within the group, particularly over its future role in Gaza and which compromises it should make with Israel. The movement has yet to appoint a successor to Sinwar, whose dominant influence over decision-making has left a void in the group's leadership.

The path forward for Hamas remains uncertain, as its internal rifts and shifting strategies continue to complicate any potential resolution to the conflict.

By Tamilla Hasanova