Russia's Sarmat missile tests fail: second accident in a year

An explosion at a Strategic Missile Forces base in the town of Yasny in Russia’s Orenburg Region on the afternoon of November 28 was caused by a failed test of Russia’s newest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the “Sarmat”, according to military analysts.

Eyewitness footage published by The Moscow Times shows a missile emerging from its silo and ascending briefly before tilting, catching fire, and disintegrating. The blast produced a massive mushroom-shaped cloud tinted orange and purple.

Pavel Podvig, senior research fellow at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, said all available evidence points to the Sarmat. Developed since 2013 to replace ageing Soviet-era silo-based missiles, the Sarmat has yet to complete a successful flight. Its previous test, about a year ago at the Plesetsk test range, also ended in failure when the missile exploded inside its silo, carving out a large crater.

Étienne Markus, a research fellow at the French Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), concurred, saying it is “highly likely” the latest incident involved another Sarmat failure. Satellite data from Sentinel-2 indicates the missile crashed roughly one kilometre from the launch site, leaving behind a crater estimated at 70 metres wide, Markus noted. He added that Russia urgently needs the missile certified, as President Vladimir Putin declared it would enter service this year.

According to military expert Dmitry Kornev, Russia had issued NOTAMs for hazardous areas near both Yasny and the Kura test range in Kamchatka, suggesting the missile was intended to fly along this route. Kornev agrees the failed launch could have involved a Sarmat but does not exclude the possibility of a “Voyevoda” (SS-18), a legacy Soviet-era ICBM still in service. Both missiles use liquid fuel, which could explain the distinctive colour of the explosion plume.

Podvig, however, dismissed that scenario. The Voyevoda was last tested in 2013, and according to SIPRI, only 34 remain in service. Although some are still operational, Podvig noted it is “highly unlikely” the Russian military would conduct a test launch of such an ageing system.

The Yasny base is also home to Russia’s newest “Avangard” hypersonic glide vehicle systems, but Podvig stressed these use a “hot launch” technique. Eyewitness videos clearly show a “cold launch”, he said — a strong indicator that the missile was another Sarmat.

“Judging by everything, this is another failure for the Sarmat program,” Podvig concluded, adding that Putin’s announcement of deployment in 2025 is “extremely unlikely” to be met.

Markus warned that the setback “will severely damage Russia’s deterrence posture in the medium term.” The R-36M2 Voyevoda missiles, which carry a large share of Russia’s strategic warheads, face mounting maintenance challenges — work previously conducted in Ukraine until 2014.

According to SIPRI, Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenal includes 333 land-based missiles, the majority of which are “Yars” systems (206 units), capable of carrying four 250-kiloton warheads. Russia also fields 78 “Topol” missiles with single 800-kiloton warheads, 12 “Avangard” systems, and around three dozen “Voyevoda” ICBMs, each equipped with 10 independently targetable warheads.

Additionally, Russia operates 192 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, including the “Sineva” and “Bulava” systems.

By Khagan Isayev