Ohanyan's outburst: Revanchism for self-serving purposes Experts discuss revanchist agenda in Armenia

Recently, the representative of the Karabakh clan, which practically leads the opposition camp in Armenia today, made another revanchist statement.

"I believe that negotiations aimed at finding a correct solution to the Karabakh conflict should continue, and Armenia's voice must be heard in these negotiations," said Seyran Ohanyan, the former Minister of Defense and leader of the parliamentary faction of the "Armenia" bloc, in an interview with News.am.

"First of all, these are negotiations about the fate of Karabakh, where three factors must be considered. First, the conflict is not over; through the criminal actions of Azerbaijan and the forced deportation of the people of Karabakh, genocide was committed, and Azerbaijan must be held accountable for this. Second, the institutions of the 'Republic of Artsakh' must function; the entire management system must operate, and this must be in Armenia. There is no alternative to negotiations about the fate of Karabakh, and the format of the negotiations should be the co-chairmanship of the Minsk Group. Everything must be done to ensure these processes are implemented. The negotiations, of course, are not easy, and people think that the fate of Karabakh has been decided. Of course, it is difficult to restore everything, but delay is akin to a crime," Ohanyan said.

The very fact of this statement clearly indicates that the opposition political camp in Armenia does not consider the issue of Karabakh to be finally settled. What does this suggest? Does it not point to the possibility that if these forces return to power, Armenia will again adopt a policy of territorial claims against Azerbaijan? Do Ohanyan and those behind him—Sargsyan, Kocharyan, and others—not understand that this primarily brings troubles and misfortunes to Armenia itself? And, of course, it does nothing to promote stability in the South Caucasus region.

Political experts shared their views on this matter with Caliber.Az.

Tatiana Poloskova, Doctor of Political Science, Candidate of Philosophical Sciences, and diplomat from Russia, primarily noted that former Minister of Defense and current member of the Armenian parliament, Seyran Ohanyan, has extensive experience in political activity in post-Soviet Armenia.

"Despite the extravagance of his statements, I think there is something else behind these remarks. Unlike many Armenian generals, who are hard to look at without tears, Ohanyan is a career military officer who received specialized education during the Soviet era—and that says a lot.

Ohanyan fully understands that under the current geopolitical situation and Azerbaijan's level of combat readiness, an invasion of Karabakh by the Armenian army will be extinguished within a few days, if not hours. These actions will not receive any real international support either. Moreover, in this case, Armenia risks losing its territories, which were granted to it during the Soviet period. Does Ohanyan and those like him think about Armenia and its scattered people? No. It seems the game is something else," said the political science doctor.

The fact is that rumors about preparations for some snap parliamentary elections in Armenia to overthrow Pashinyan have been circulating in Moscow for several months, she reported.

"And I have no reason not to trust them. They've even invited me to the final press conference in Yerevan. I could fly to Yerevan if security is ensured, but I’m not very confident about the possibility of holding snap elections. Ohanyan's statements are too much like, to put it in military terms, a preliminary artillery bombardment before the start of active political actions.

Very interesting information has been coming from Yerevan to Moscow in recent months. I would even say it's symbolic. For instance, that Pashinyan is an influence agent of Erdogan and allegedly receives instructions from him by phone for hours. There’s an attempt to use any excuse to stir up anti-Turkish sentiments, including the massacre in the coastal cities of Syria. I spent two years on assignment in Syria, specifically in Latakia. I see no signs of ethnic or religious genocide allegedly carried out by pro-Turkish forces. The Alawites, during Assad's time, were the backbone of his regime. They essentially ran the army, police, and state security. Naturally, they had preferences when it came to the redistribution of industrial and recreational assets along the Mediterranean coast. And, to be honest, they were brutal in suppressing resistance, especially in prisons. This information is publicly available. I'm not justifying anyone, but we are dealing with a civil war in Syria, not genocide. And it was clear that if Russia left the region, the situation would unfold this way," said the expert.

In her opinion, Yerevan propagandists, with the support of the Russian lobby (which has not disappeared), use any excuse to portray Baku and Ankara in an unfavorable light.

"This informational background is not accidental either. Yes, there are revanchists in the political and military circles of Yerevan who want war. But not for the sake of Armenia and, especially, Karabakh. War means money, war means weapons supplies that can be resold to the same African countries (as was done in the past). War means humanitarian supplies, on which some of the currently living Armenian oligarchs made their fortunes during the First Karabakh War. And what else in Armenia can be used to make money? No one is focused on developing the economy.

Personally, I believe that modern Armenia is becoming a toxic state. Pashinyan is indeed weak and unreliable as a politician. And this is exactly what the revanchist circles are taking advantage of. But certainly not for the benefit of the Armenian people. It’s purely for their own selfish interests," the diplomat said.

International affairs expert and head of the Political Scientists Club "South Caucasus," Ilgar Valizade, stated that, firstly, these individuals are unlikely to return to power because they have so thoroughly discredited themselves in the eyes of Armenian society that it is doubtful they will ever hold any significant positions again.

"Although in this case, nothing can be entirely ruled out. At the same time, by exploiting such topics from the past, they are attempting to justify their previous actions and strengthen their positions within Armenia's political spectrum.

We know that there are pacifist sentiments in Armenian society today. This is the result of Armenia's defeat in the 44-day war and subsequent events, which showed that Armenia cannot militarily influence the political situation in the region or put pressure on Azerbaijan.

However, a segment of society still cherishes revanchist ideas. And in order to 'justify their hopes,' individuals like Ohanyan and his associates express such delusional ideas. Of course, the course of history cannot be reversed, nor can historical processes be turned back. But these people are primarily concerned with their own interests, and they simply need to fulfill the social or political orders that still exist and are being formed by both parts of Armenian society and external players, mainly from the Diaspora and the Armenian Church. This is essentially what lies behind the rhetoric of MP Ohanyan and his allies," the expert said.

On the other hand, he notes, we must understand that all these talks about the "poor, unfortunate people of Karabakh" are shattered by reality.

"And the reality is that those who speak about the need to protect the rights of these very Armenians of Karabakh have spent their entire conscious lives hiding behind their backs. Meanwhile, they have made a fortune. Neither Ohanyan, nor Kocharyan, nor Sargsyan, nor their close associates are in dire straits. By the way, the so-called founding fathers of the separatist movement, such as Balayan and his associates, are also not suffering. Their families are by no means starving. It is precisely the ordinary people, who have been deceived by these separatists and the leaders of the Karabakh clan, who are suffering.

People are not fools; they understand what lies behind Ohanyan's calls. War, conflict—this is the natural environment for people like him. They lived off this, developed, and profited from the suffering of their own people. They actually want the continuation of this conflict narrative to justify their miserable existence. That’s all that lies behind the words and actions of these individuals," concludes Valizade.