Peace with Azerbaijan - matter of survival for Armenia Foreign experts' opinions on Caliber.Az

There is a consensus on a number of issues of the peace treaty between Yerevan and Baku, speaker of the Armenian parliament Alain Simonyan said.

"I cannot voice them as it may hinder the process. But I can say that these are internationally accepted principles. They are general provisions," Simonyan said.

Nevertheless, he noted that the Armenian side is against including "bombs" in the text of the document, which may threaten Armenian statehood, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Moreover, as Simonyan said, the peace treaty should not contain any provisions concerning the Karabakh problem.

"We must understand whether the inclusion of anything about Karabakh in the treaty is dictated by our interests, the interests of the people of Karabakh. Let there be no impression that we refuse the protection of the interests of Karabakh and the rights of its population," said the Speaker of the National Assembly.

It is curious what exactly in this case Simonyan meant and is it in the interest of Azerbaijan? The lack of provisions on Karabakh doesn't look bad for Azerbaijan - since there are no mentions, the problem is already in the past, on what Baku just insists, and in the future, should anything happen, Armenia will have nothing to appeal in the text of the treaty. Maybe Simonyan, Pashinyan, and the rest of the ruling team are not simply 'postponing the resolution of the status issue for the future', but acknowledging that this region of Azerbaijan will no longer have any special status. Are they therefore prepared to take this step despite the expected discontent and protests of a significant part of the Armenian population? Or do they imagine all this somehow differently?

Prominent foreign experts shared their views on these very important issues with Caliber.Az.

According to Russian expert on the South Caucasus Konstantin Tasits, the Armenian side's current position is that the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan should deal only with inter-state issues.

"Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has publicly allowed that the text of the agreement may not mention Karabakh. However, Yerevan believes that the signing of a peace agreement should be preceded by the creation of a mechanism for dialogue between Baku and representatives of the Karabakh Armenians on their rights and security guarantees. And this mechanism should be internationally visible. Specific details of this format, as well as the text of the peace treaty, are now the matter of negotiations with the participation of the United States and the European Union," he said.

Israeli political analyst David Eidelman believes that there can be no final agreement, framework or otherwise, between Armenia and Azerbaijan without the Karabakh issue.

"This is well understood in Armenia. You may recall Pashinyan saying in parliament on September 13 that he wanted to sign a document, as a result of which many would call their government traitors, and the people may decide to remove them from power. But he added that he would be satisfied if as a result Armenia gets lasting peace and security over an area of 29,800 square kilometres. That is, without Karabakh.

Another issue is that President Aliyev is well aware of one of the main principles in the so-called Harvard system of negotiations: nothing is settled until everything is settled. That is, until all the details are settled, there is no peace agreement. And Armenia needs peace more than Azerbaijan does. For Baku, peace with Yerevan is a matter of growth - geopolitical, economic, commercial, whatever you want. But for Armenia, peace with Azerbaijan is a matter of survival. Because Armenia is closed in communication," Eidelman pointed out.

Requiring Armenians to say they are giving up Karabakh now, before the negotiations, would be foolish. Because there is no government in Armenia that would do such a thing, Eidelman emphasises.

"Peace is possible because of Russia's weakening and the change in the world situation. One of Azerbaijan's tasks today is to help Pashinyan pass off the territorial compromise as a great achievement for Armenia. And it will really be a huge achievement, because it will help the country to survive, to develop, to become richer, stronger, healthier.

That is, one of the main tasks of the peace talks is to help Pashinyan compose a victory speech on territorial compromise. So that not only Ilham Aliyev, but also Nikol Pashinyan leaves the negotiation room as a winner. This is the task facing the sides if they really want to sign peace," the expert believes.

"First, we have to wait to see whether there will be an agreement. I remember it was already promised to be signed before the New Year, and it is now March," believes Sergei Zhavoronkov, co-chairman of the Russian political party Democratic Choice and senior expert at the Gaidar Institute for Economic Development (Moscow). - Secondly, I don't expect any breakthroughs from it. I think that if it is signed, it will be declarative, and in this sense, we can hardly expect any protests in Armenia".

He said the key issue is different - the implementation of the November 10, 2020 agreements regarding Karabakh and the Russian peacekeeping contingent deployed for five years.

"Will this contingent be withdrawn if the extension of its stay cannot be agreed upon? It should be withdrawn according to the agreement, but as we know not all agreements are implemented. Armenia seems to be the weaker party now, but let's not forget that for the Russian authorities, the issue of bases is a fetish. Bases in Armenia are valuable for them, and by their recent statements the Armenian authorities have already hinted that their existence cannot be continued for nothing," the expert said, reminding also that there is no corridor to Nakhchivan, its implementation has not started yet either.