German army chief warns Russia could attack NATO by 2029

Germany must be prepared for the possibility of a Russian attack by 2029 — or potentially even earlier — Lt. Gen. Christian Freuding, the head of the German army, has warned, noting “they must be ready to fight.”

Speaking to POLITICO at the ILA aerospace exhibition in Berlin, he said there is a broad consensus among NATO allies that Russia could be capable of targeting NATO territory before the end of the decade.

“2029 is not a German timeline. It’s NATO-agreed intelligence,” Freuding said. “All 32 NATO partners agree that Russia might have the capability to invade a NATO partner country in 2029.”

However, he cautioned that Russia could act earlier, even as the war in Ukraine stretches into its fifth year and Kyiv reports that Moscow has suffered more than 1.3 million casualties alongside heavy equipment losses.

His remarks come amid growing concern among European defence officials that Russia could rebuild sufficient military strength within a few years to pose a direct conventional threat to NATO, despite its losses in Ukraine. As a result, “2029” has increasingly become a reference point for when Europe must urgently close gaps in readiness, production capacity, and military capability.

The comments highlight fears in defence planning circles that Moscow could test NATO while European countries are still rebuilding their armed forces.

This sense of urgency is also influencing Germany’s internal debate on arms procurement and defence industrial capacity. Freuding said Berlin has already taken significant steps to speed up procurement, while industry has expanded production capabilities.

Still, he stressed that Germany cannot rely solely on long-term weapons programs that may take years to deliver.

“Speed is of the essence now,” he said.

For systems still in development, he added, Germany needs “intermediate solutions” to bridge the gap between current capabilities and battlefield requirements.

“We must improve our capabilities for the ‘fight tonight’ every day as the German army,” he said, referring to the Bundeswehr’s shift toward a high-readiness posture aimed at deterring potential Russian aggression.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov