Russia is losing in Ukraine but winning in Georgia

The Atlantic Council carries an article about Georgia's failure to get membership status. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

With attention at NATO’s July summit in Vilnius firmly focused on Ukraine’s membership prospects, the absence of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili received relatively little attention. And yet this absence reflected an ongoing geopolitical shift in the wider Black Sea region with potentially major consequences for international security. While Russia is losing in Ukraine, there are growing indications that the Kremlin is winning in Georgia.

Weeks before this summer’s NATO summit, Georgian PM Garibashvili sparked international headlines by blaming NATO for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This statement reportedly caused the alliance to deny Garibashvili a place at the summit, according to German daily newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Garibashvili’s comments were controversial but hardly exceptional. Indeed, they reflected the Georgian government’s broader turn away from Euro-Atlantic integration and toward the Kremlin.

In July 2023, Georgia signed a strategic partnership with China, signaling a further shift away from the West amid growing signs of Beijing’s tacit support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Georgian government has not only embraced Beijing’s “Belt and Road” initiative, but has also indicated support for other Chinese foreign policy ventures that appear designed to counterbalance the West in general and the United States in particular. This trend should be on the radar of all Western policymakers.

Western leaders should know that downplaying the geopolitical changes currently taking place in Georgia is short-sighted. The West’s weak response to Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia is now widely seen as a major strategic blunder that emboldened Vladimir Putin and set the stage for the genocidal invasion of Ukraine. Fifteen years on, the revival of Russian influence in Georgia is helping to convince Putin that despite major setbacks, he will ultimately be able to achieve his goals in Ukraine.

While the Western world has united in opposition to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Georgia has stood aside and has instead adopted a range of Kremlin-friendly policies. Crucially, the Georgian authorities have flatly refused to join international sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile, Tbilisi recently restored direct flights with Russia, despite calls from the EU and US not to do so. Government officials have also echoed Kremlin propaganda accusing the West of attempting to pressure Georgia into attacking Russia.

Meanwhile, critics have accused the Georgian authorities of embracing anti-democratic policies similar to those adopted by Russia in recent decades. In spring 2023, the ruling Georgian Dream party attempted to implement new laws that closely mirrored existing Russian legislation targeting civil society organizations as “foreign agents.” This initiative was eventually blocked by large-scale public protests, but efforts to demonize civil society and the country’s political opposition have continued.